Demand for flight instructors

[digits_]

You’re not reading what I’m saying. There is an increase in need for 702 pilots, which is going to change perceptions about how reasonable it may seem to get started in a flying career. This means that a lot of folks who might otherwise think that getting an instructor rating is the ticket up, now have another option. So do instructors for that matter, who are looking to have a resume that is perceived as being more desirable. In some cases it won’t even be 702 since depending on the method of data acquisition, it may not be necessary. This is going to be an unfortunate trend in the market for new pilots since I feel it’s going to drive down wages, or rather has already, if one has run into some of the 172 swarms floating around the country. The point being that while the demand for upper seats may diminish, I don’t think the demand for cheap Canadian training will in the near future, and the increasing availability of low time openings is going to increase which will fuel the appeal of training here.

What makes you think the 702 market is growing so much? I don't think the lack of available aircraft for sale is a good indicator. Planes are just getting old and reaching the end of their life, be it due to crashes, lack of spare parts or just too old to fix.

Even if the 702 were growing, doubling a 702 market would probably not even compensate for 10% reduction in airline flying.

In short, don’t underestimate the sales pitch of a quick thousand hours.

Who is making this sales pitch, to whom? Not sure what you're getting at.

[Squaretail]

The sales pitch to student pilots. The point I feel you are missing is selling flight training does’t have to be connected to an actual demand for airline pilots. Never has. There only has to be a perceived demand for pilots, which the increase in 702 operation fuels. Not sure how your career started, but I know younger me would have jumped on all the flying opportunities that exist for starting pilots (and present me would probably be aghast at how little younger me would be being paid). You need to step into the shoes of a neophyte looking to invest in this career, opposed to the current jaded pilot you might be.

As per my outlook on 702, I’m trying to price out planes as we speak. I get offers to buy our airplanes. Seeing more ads with guys wanting airplanes. Not just here. Travelling the country I see more and more companies doing some sort of 702 work, which used to be kind of insular. Not that long ago I knew of every competitor we had and their planes. Not anymore. I’m even too busy, there is more work being tendered, all the time. My busiest years were during Covid, and this year is getting more so. The technology of the sensors is increasing in leaps and bounds, and what used to need a larger platform, now can be accomplished with smaller, cheaper and perhaps most importantly easier to crew platforms. Drones may eventually take over a lot of this field (and there are niches where they might be the preferred platform) but for the near future little airplanes with cheap pilots are extremely cost effective.

For example, meter reading is increasingly done by aircraft. A 172 can do the work in one day that a fleet of cars can do in a week. Now think of how many 172s are going to be needed to get coverage needed for every township and county in Canada. And that’s only one aspect of the increase in demand. I get that as an airline guy you may not be on the ground to see this, but from what I see, there are going to be a lot more little airplanes buzzing around this country.

[digits_]

The sales pitch to student pilots. The point I feel you are missing is selling flight training does’t have to be connected to an actual demand for airline pilots. Never has. There only has to be a perceived demand for pilots, which the increase in 702 operation fuels. Not sure how your career started, but I know younger me would have jumped on all the flying opportunities that exist for starting pilots (and present me would probably be aghast at how little younger me would be being paid). You need to step into the shoes of a neophyte looking to invest in this career, opposed to the current jaded pilot you might be.

I already agreed with you that the training capacity for FTUs will likely increase. I'll quote myself:

Yes, the demand for training is there. Yes it's driven by international students. Yes, FTUs might be increasing their capacity.
Yes, there is a perception that a pilot career is a good choice.

Even if the demand goes up by 10%, if the airlines stop hiring, instructors will not be able to move on. Which means there will be no shortage of instructors. FTUs are making more instructors than they will need to compensate for the training demand.

Even if this is offset by a growing 702 market segment, I don't think it will be enough to compensate for lost pilot jobs if airline growth stops.

[Squaretail]

That reasoning is only predicated on Canadian airline growth though. I think the story is different in other parts of the world, where the demand is increasing, and in spite of downturns in global demands for air travel in short term, are banking on long term steady growth in demand. The growth might slow, but it will still be growth.

The increase in 702 is just more of an incentive for an even larger share of the training demand to come to Canada. Not only will it be cheap to train pilots, but will be able to produce cheap semi trained pilots. There will always be a turn over of instructors, regardless of whether there is a path up for them. Now there will be an increasing reason to leave instruction. If they really needed it. There aren’t many career instructors, or at least people willing to stick it out much over the thousand hour mark. Like I said, seeing lots of people leaving instructing, probably because of the perennially bad wages in the bad economy, but that doesn’t mean no one will want to fill their shoes.

[photofly]

I’m fascinated by the supposed increase in 702 operations.

Just meter reading is enough to make a dent in the pilot employment market?

[Squaretail]

Drones are expensive, pilots aren’t. But also drones don’t yet have the range or endurance for a lot of the missions required. The plane is just more operationally flexible. You are a company based in say Winnipeg. You want to deploy a drone to do a job in Thompson. Weather is good today. Plane can be there and back with data to process within the day. Guy with drone in car takes how long to get on site?

Don’t get me wrong, drones are good for, and are being used for lots of applications. But they have limitations. The won’t replace planes until units with predator like capability start to become commercially available. Lots of times as well the platform is the cheap part of the operation. If you’re working with a $50,000 LiDAR unit, you going to risk losing it in the middle of nowhere in a drone? That’s fine for some LOS work where you will probably find the thing, but not for longer range applications.

There isn’t a supposed increase, that’s already here. For example, there used to be 5 survey outfits in Alberta, now there’s at least 10. Most of the increase has been smaller platforms (172s) where as a lot of the work was more medium platforms (cabin size twins) This didn’t mean a bite out of the larger operators though, only that new sensors to do new work has created an additional market. If anything, some of the rotary wing market has been bitten out of by drone work, and some of the new fixed wing systems, in the quest to reduce costs. Since that work has become cheaper, there has become more demand for it.

[Squaretail]

Just meter reading is enough to make a dent in the pilot employment market?

Yes. It will not be a better time to be looking for a job with the ink still fresh on your license. That’s not going to help the guys looking for six figures and a seniority number, it’s unfortunately going to drive down pilot wages on the whole I think. But I don’t think that reality is in the minds of anyone hoping to roll the dice on a shot at some shoulder bars and a right seat.

[Conflicting Traffic]

... it’s unfortunately going to drive down pilot wages on the whole I think.

This is the part I'm not following. If I understand you, you're saying that demand is increasing, and that will drive wages down. What am I missing?

[photofly]

Wages for zero-time CPLs may increase, but eventually there’s going to be a much bigger pool of pilots qualified to take the next step, into the right seat of something, which will push those wages down. It certainly won’t encourage smaller operators to pay more.

Pilot salaries at each stage of a career are held up by supply constraints at the preceding level. At the moment there’s a bottleneck in getting initial commercial experience, that is to say, by a shortage of experienced pilots. Introduce a lot of entry level jobs, that bottleneck is eased, supply goes up, and down come wages. Perhaps that’s the argument.

[rookiepilot]

None of you guys have a clue what’s coming, do you?

I warned you. Months ago.

No one listens.

[Squaretail]

Wages for zero-time CPLs may increase, but eventually there’s going to be a much bigger pool of pilots qualified to take the next step, into the right seat of something, which will push those wages down. It certainly won’t encourage smaller operators to pay more.

Pilot salaries at each stage of a career are held up by supply constraints at the preceding level. At the moment there’s a bottleneck in getting initial commercial experience, that is to say, by a shortage of experienced pilots. Introduce a lot of entry level jobs, that bottleneck is eased, supply goes up, and down come wages. Perhaps that’s the argument.

That is my thought on it. I don’t see instructor wages budging, no matter the demand for them. It would take any shortage there to get severe, before something drastic like increasing wages will happen. But with more guys being able to get that thousand hour mark, I think there is going to be a large supply of ready right seaters, now with that magic 1000 hour time jockeying for spots, which is where I think you’re going to see a pretty awful job market.

[Big Pistons Forever]

None of you guys have a clue what’s coming, do you?

I warned you. Months ago.

No one listens.

I generally don't pay attention to people who make definitive comments on the future of the economy. There are too many unknown, unknowns. In December of 2019 nobody expected the economy to be flat lined by COVID, but then almost nobody expected a raging bull market in the fall of 2020 through 2021. Nobody expected Putin to wage all out war in Ukraine and the subsequent spike in fuel costs. Who knows what the next shock to the economy is going to be or even if there is one.

With respect to airline travel there is one indisputable fact. There is a huge pent up post COVID travel demand. In the short term this IS creating a lot of demand for pilots and the pool of COVID laid off pilots is now empty forcing hiring at all levels. How long this will last is anyone guess, but it is the reality now.

I think all you can do is keep your options open. Have a cash reserve on hand, keep your debt down and stay invested but with a buy and hold diversified portfolio.

[Conflicting Traffic]

Wages for zero-time CPLs may increase, but eventually there’s going to be a much bigger pool of pilots qualified to take the next step, into the right seat of something, which will push those wages down. It certainly won’t encourage smaller operators to pay more.

Pilot salaries at each stage of a career are held up by supply constraints at the preceding level. At the moment there’s a bottleneck in getting initial commercial experience, that is to say, by a shortage of experienced pilots. Introduce a lot of entry level jobs, that bottleneck is eased, supply goes up, and down come wages. Perhaps that’s the argument.

Ah. That's exactly what I was missing. Makes sense. I don't see it holding though except as a transient with abnormal growth at one level. Maybe that's the argument/claim. I'd be interested in seeing actual numbers to support it.

That is my thought on it. I don’t see instructor wages budging, no matter the demand for them. It would take any shortage there to get severe, before something drastic like increasing wages will happen. But with more guys being able to get that thousand hour mark, I think there is going to be a large supply of ready right seaters, now with that magic 1000 hour time jockeying for spots, which is where I think you’re going to see a pretty awful job market.

Most instructors don't want to instruct. They're just time-building. If there's an alternate route to getting hours, instructor supply will fall off. If that lasts, it will eventually push instructor wages up. If it's just a transient adjustment to a new-but-ultimately-constant revenue source, you're probably right that it won't make much difference.

None of you guys have a clue what’s coming, do you?

I warned you. Months ago.

I haven' seen anyone contradict your claims (I also don't read every thread, so maybe I missed it:)). A warning that doesn't have specific numbers and dates attached to it isn't worth much. "There is a downturn coming". Of course there is. There's always a downturn coming. For that information to be useful, I need to know exactly when it will happen, exactly how severe it will be for the general public, and exactly how severe it will be for my segment of my industry. Of course, I exaggerate slightly here. Placing error bars (so that the numbers are no longer "exact") on he claimed numbers is useful as well. Without such information, all you can do is manage the financial/economic risk by hedging your bets -- as BPF noted:

I think all you can do is keep your options open. Have a cash reserve on hand, keep your debt down and stay invested but with a buy and hold diversified portfolio.

[rookiepilot]

None of you guys have a clue what’s coming, do you?

I warned you. Months ago.

No one listens.

I generally don't pay attention to people who make definitive comments on the future of the economy. There are too many unknown, unknowns. In December of 2019 nobody expected the economy to be flat lined by COVID, but then almost nobody expected a raging bull market in the fall of 2020 through 2021. Nobody expected Putin to wage all out war in Ukraine and the subsequent spike in fuel costs. Who knows what the next shock to the economy is going to be or even if there is one.

With respect to airline travel there is one indisputable fact. There is a huge pent up post COVID travel demand. In the short term this IS creating a lot of demand for pilots and the pool of COVID laid off pilots is now empty forcing hiring at all levels. How long this will last is anyone guess, but it is the reality now.

I think all you can do is keep your options open. Have a cash reserve on hand, keep your debt down and stay invested but with a buy and hold diversified portfolio.

A) That you even think this is anything to do with Ukraine tells me everything. It is not. Neither was my warning last year. And January.

B). I’ve been 100% right so far.

C) There is a reason i write for young people. At least they have a chance of listening.

Oh, and D). Pent up travel demand: When i fly, i pay attention to the TCU’s in front of me, not the blue sky in the rear view mirror.

[rookiepilot]

A warning that doesn't have specific numbers and dates attached to it isn't worth much.

This is really a moronic comment.

When you look at a GFA and it forecasts a cold front with 70 knot gusts, do you dismiss it because it doesn’t give the exact minute it will pass?

Truly….stupid, idiotic comment. I assume you simply don’t know any better, or listen too much to the wrong people.

[digits_]

A warning that doesn't have specific numbers and dates attached to it isn't worth much.

This is really a moronic comment.

When you look at a GFA and it forecasts a cold front with 70 knot gusts, do you dismiss it because it doesn’t give the exact minute it will pass?

Truly….stupid, idiotic comment. I assume you simply don’t know any better, or listen too much to the wrong people.

Ah come on rookie. The GFA gives a timing window. Most of your predictions don't.


You've said things will get much worse. Which month or year do you expect things to be at their worst? What's the maximum level of inflation we will see? What about mortgage rates?

That's the sort of predictions that allows for a discussion or research. Just claiming that things will get much worse is so vague it's pretty much useless.

I can equally claim things will improve. And in 10 years, we will likely both have been right.

[rookiepilot]

.

[rookiepilot]

A warning that doesn't have specific numbers and dates attached to it isn't worth much.

This is really a moronic comment.

When you look at a GFA and it forecasts a cold front with 70 knot gusts, do you dismiss it because it doesn’t give the exact minute it will pass?

Truly….stupid, idiotic comment. I assume you simply don’t know any better, or listen too much to the wrong people.

Ah come on rookie. The GFA gives a timing window. Most of your predictions don't.


You've said things will get much worse. Which month or year do you expect things to be at their worst? What's the maximum level of inflation we will see? What about mortgage rates?

That's the sort of predictions that allows for a discussion or research. Just claiming that things will get much worse is so vague it's pretty much useless.

I can equally claim things will improve. And in 10 years, we will likely both have been right.

I don’t know. No one does.

Im a trader. Not an economist.

When i see anvil shaped clouds out the window, I get the F out of there. Doesn’t need to be more precise than that. I’ve seen green and yellow blobs on my Nexrad blow up to Red in minutes while i was flying really close to them. Shocked how fast the cells intensified.

I didn’t wait around to see how bad its going to get. This is the same.

[Big Pistons Forever]

None of you guys have a clue what’s coming, do you?

I warned you. Months ago.

No one listens.

Certain information set forth in this persons posting history, including the posters assessment of the economy's future performance contains forward-looking statements which are based on the posters current internal expectations, estimates, projections, assumptions and beliefs, and which may prove to be incorrect. Some of the forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as anticipate”, “believe”, “plan”, “estimate”, “expect”, “predict”, “intend”, “will”, “may”, “could”, “would”, “should” and similar expressions intended to identify forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Such forward-looking statements necessarily involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause the economy's actual performance and financial results in future periods to differ materially from any projections of future performance or results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

[Big Pistons Forever]

deleted