Flair off runway excursion YKF

[J31]

While you guys fight over fatigue and truckers, lets get some numbers out there.

Chaxterium posted earlier this earlier:

I believe they landed around 6am yesterday morning.

All times local.

07:00 METAR CYKF 251200Z AUTO 30017G23KT 9SM OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK SLP118
06:52 METAR CYKF 251152Z AUTO 30016G24KT 6SM BR OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK PRESRR SLP118
06:48 SPECI CYKF 251148Z AUTO 30016G26KT 3SM BR OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK SLP117
06:41 METAR CYKF 251141Z AUTO 30017G26KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC008 05/03 A2984 RMK SLP114
06:38 METAR CYKF 251138Z AUTO 30018G25KT 3SM BR OVC008 05/04 A2984 RMK SLP114
06:24 METAR CYKF 251124Z AUTO 30016G25KT 3SM -RA BR OVC006 05/04 A2983 RMK SLP111
06:02 METAR CYKF 251102Z AUTO 29016G23KT 2SM -RA BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP109
06:00 METAR CYKF 251100Z AUTO 28017G23KT 2SM BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP109
05:52 METAR CYKF 251052Z AUTO 28017G24KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP108
05:00 METAR CYKF 251000Z AUTO 27017G25KT 4SM BR OVC006 06/05 A2981 RMK SLP103

I calculated some B737-800 landing numbers based on 135 passengers, raining, possible pooling of water on the runway. The SFP model will do about 2-300 ft shorter landing numbers. These numbers also have %15 buffer built into them. Max manual braking will improve these numbers by 2-400 ft.

135,000 landing weight, 7003 ft wet runway, 10kt headwind, flap 30
Autobrake 3: 7740 ft wet, pooled water 9140 ft.
Autobrake MAX: 6240 ft wet, pooled water 8820 ft.

135,000 landing weight, 7003 ft wet runway, no headwind, flap 40
Autobrake 3: 7240 ft wet, pooled water 8630 ft.
Autobrake MAX: 6080 ft wet, pooled water 8380 ft.

As you can see, anything greater than wet runway gets you in trouble pretty fast.

I was not there, nor do I have any inside information. I am using what I think the conditions for landing were, and are intended for educational reasons only. I am not blaming the crew.

Personally I would have not attempted that landing in the rain with these numbers, before and after armchair quarterbacking.

[rookiepilot]

While you guys fight over fatigue and truckers, lets get some numbers out there.

Chaxterium posted earlier this earlier:

I believe they landed around 6am yesterday morning.

All times local.

07:00 METAR CYKF 251200Z AUTO 30017G23KT 9SM OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK SLP118
06:52 METAR CYKF 251152Z AUTO 30016G24KT 6SM BR OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK PRESRR SLP118
06:48 SPECI CYKF 251148Z AUTO 30016G26KT 3SM BR OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK SLP117
06:41 METAR CYKF 251141Z AUTO 30017G26KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC008 05/03 A2984 RMK SLP114
06:38 METAR CYKF 251138Z AUTO 30018G25KT 3SM BR OVC008 05/04 A2984 RMK SLP114
06:24 METAR CYKF 251124Z AUTO 30016G25KT 3SM -RA BR OVC006 05/04 A2983 RMK SLP111
06:02 METAR CYKF 251102Z AUTO 29016G23KT 2SM -RA BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP109
06:00 METAR CYKF 251100Z AUTO 28017G23KT 2SM BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP109
05:52 METAR CYKF 251052Z AUTO 28017G24KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP108
05:00 METAR CYKF 251000Z AUTO 27017G25KT 4SM BR OVC006 06/05 A2981 RMK SLP103

I calculated some B737-800 landing numbers based on 135 passengers, raining, possible pooling of water on the runway. The SFP model will do about 2-300 ft shorter landing numbers. These numbers also have %15 buffer built into them. Max manual braking will improve these numbers by 2-400 ft.

135,000 landing weight, 7003 ft wet runway, 10kt headwind, flap 30
Autobrake 3: 7740 ft wet, pooled water 9140 ft.
Autobrake MAX: 6240 ft wet, pooled water 8820 ft.

135,000 landing weight, 7003 ft wet runway, no headwind, flap 40
Autobrake 3: 7240 ft wet, pooled water 8630 ft.
Autobrake MAX: 6080 ft wet, pooled water 8380 ft.

As you can see, anything greater than wet runway gets you in trouble pretty fast.

I was not there, nor do I have any inside information. I am using what I think the conditions for landing were, and are intended for educational reasons only. I am not blaming the crew.

Personally I would have not attempted that landing in the rain with these numbers, before and after armchair quarterbacking.

Wow. How is YKF routinely used in the winter, with those numbers, unless cleared to bare, every time?

[daedalusx]

Thanks for posting the numbers. Wondering if with the tail number it's possible to find out if it had the SFP package or was a straight NG.

From the pics that morning after the incident and the fact that it only had light rain for less than 1 hr, I'm not sure it would be enough to be considered pooled water but definitely at least damp, possibly wet.

While you guys fight over fatigue and truckers, lets get some numbers out there.

Chaxterium posted earlier this earlier:

I believe they landed around 6am yesterday morning.

All times local.

07:00 METAR CYKF 251200Z AUTO 30017G23KT 9SM OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK SLP118
06:52 METAR CYKF 251152Z AUTO 30016G24KT 6SM BR OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK PRESRR SLP118
06:48 SPECI CYKF 251148Z AUTO 30016G26KT 3SM BR OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK SLP117
06:41 METAR CYKF 251141Z AUTO 30017G26KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC008 05/03 A2984 RMK SLP114
06:38 METAR CYKF 251138Z AUTO 30018G25KT 3SM BR OVC008 05/04 A2984 RMK SLP114
06:24 METAR CYKF 251124Z AUTO 30016G25KT 3SM -RA BR OVC006 05/04 A2983 RMK SLP111
06:02 METAR CYKF 251102Z AUTO 29016G23KT 2SM -RA BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP109
06:00 METAR CYKF 251100Z AUTO 28017G23KT 2SM BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP109
05:52 METAR CYKF 251052Z AUTO 28017G24KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP108
05:00 METAR CYKF 251000Z AUTO 27017G25KT 4SM BR OVC006 06/05 A2981 RMK SLP103

I calculated some B737-800 landing numbers based on 135 passengers, raining, possible pooling of water on the runway. The SFP model will do about 2-300 ft shorter landing numbers. These numbers also have %15 buffer built into them. Max manual braking will improve these numbers by 2-400 ft.

135,000 landing weight, 7003 ft wet runway, 10kt headwind, flap 30
Autobrake 3: 7740 ft wet, pooled water 9140 ft.
Autobrake MAX: 6240 ft wet, pooled water 8820 ft.

135,000 landing weight, 7003 ft wet runway, no headwind, flap 40
Autobrake 3: 7240 ft wet, pooled water 8630 ft.
Autobrake MAX: 6080 ft wet, pooled water 8380 ft.

As you can see, anything greater than wet runway gets you in trouble pretty fast.

I was not there, nor do I have any inside information. I am using what I think the conditions for landing were, and are intended for educational reasons only. I am not blaming the crew.

Personally I would have not attempted that landing in the rain with these numbers, before and after armchair quarterbacking.

[pelmet]

While you guys fight over fatigue and truckers, lets get some numbers out there.

Chaxterium posted earlier this earlier:

I believe they landed around 6am yesterday morning.

All times local.

07:00 METAR CYKF 251200Z AUTO 30017G23KT 9SM OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK SLP118
06:52 METAR CYKF 251152Z AUTO 30016G24KT 6SM BR OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK PRESRR SLP118
06:48 SPECI CYKF 251148Z AUTO 30016G26KT 3SM BR OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK SLP117
06:41 METAR CYKF 251141Z AUTO 30017G26KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC008 05/03 A2984 RMK SLP114
06:38 METAR CYKF 251138Z AUTO 30018G25KT 3SM BR OVC008 05/04 A2984 RMK SLP114
06:24 METAR CYKF 251124Z AUTO 30016G25KT 3SM -RA BR OVC006 05/04 A2983 RMK SLP111
06:02 METAR CYKF 251102Z AUTO 29016G23KT 2SM -RA BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP109
06:00 METAR CYKF 251100Z AUTO 28017G23KT 2SM BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP109
05:52 METAR CYKF 251052Z AUTO 28017G24KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP108
05:00 METAR CYKF 251000Z AUTO 27017G25KT 4SM BR OVC006 06/05 A2981 RMK SLP103

I calculated some B737-800 landing numbers based on 135 passengers, raining, possible pooling of water on the runway. The SFP model will do about 2-300 ft shorter landing numbers. These numbers also have %15 buffer built into them. Max manual braking will improve these numbers by 2-400 ft.

135,000 landing weight, 7003 ft wet runway, 10kt headwind, flap 30
Autobrake 3: 7740 ft wet, pooled water 9140 ft.
Autobrake MAX: 6240 ft wet, pooled water 8820 ft.

135,000 landing weight, 7003 ft wet runway, no headwind, flap 40
Autobrake 3: 7240 ft wet, pooled water 8630 ft.
Autobrake MAX: 6080 ft wet, pooled water 8380 ft.

As you can see, anything greater than wet runway gets you in trouble pretty fast.

I was not there, nor do I have any inside information. I am using what I think the conditions for landing were, and are intended for educational reasons only. I am not blaming the crew.

Personally I would have not attempted that landing in the rain with these numbers, before and after armchair quarterbacking.

Hey....an intelligent post after the children had page 5 to themselves. Did we ever get an answer of what kind of an approach was used.

[twa22]

While you guys fight over fatigue and truckers, lets get some numbers out there.

Chaxterium posted earlier this earlier:

I believe they landed around 6am yesterday morning.

All times local.

07:00 METAR CYKF 251200Z AUTO 30017G23KT 9SM OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK SLP118
06:52 METAR CYKF 251152Z AUTO 30016G24KT 6SM BR OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK PRESRR SLP118
06:48 SPECI CYKF 251148Z AUTO 30016G26KT 3SM BR OVC008 04/03 A2985 RMK SLP117
06:41 METAR CYKF 251141Z AUTO 30017G26KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC008 05/03 A2984 RMK SLP114
06:38 METAR CYKF 251138Z AUTO 30018G25KT 3SM BR OVC008 05/04 A2984 RMK SLP114
06:24 METAR CYKF 251124Z AUTO 30016G25KT 3SM -RA BR OVC006 05/04 A2983 RMK SLP111
06:02 METAR CYKF 251102Z AUTO 29016G23KT 2SM -RA BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP109
06:00 METAR CYKF 251100Z AUTO 28017G23KT 2SM BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP109
05:52 METAR CYKF 251052Z AUTO 28017G24KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC006 05/04 A2982 RMK SLP108
05:00 METAR CYKF 251000Z AUTO 27017G25KT 4SM BR OVC006 06/05 A2981 RMK SLP103

I calculated some B737-800 landing numbers based on 135 passengers, raining, possible pooling of water on the runway. The SFP model will do about 2-300 ft shorter landing numbers. These numbers also have %15 buffer built into them. Max manual braking will improve these numbers by 2-400 ft.

135,000 landing weight, 7003 ft wet runway, 10kt headwind, flap 30
Autobrake 3: 7740 ft wet, pooled water 9140 ft.
Autobrake MAX: 6240 ft wet, pooled water 8820 ft.

135,000 landing weight, 7003 ft wet runway, no headwind, flap 40
Autobrake 3: 7240 ft wet, pooled water 8630 ft.
Autobrake MAX: 6080 ft wet, pooled water 8380 ft.

As you can see, anything greater than wet runway gets you in trouble pretty fast.

I was not there, nor do I have any inside information. I am using what I think the conditions for landing were, and are intended for educational reasons only. I am not blaming the crew.

Personally I would have not attempted that landing in the rain with these numbers, before and after armchair quarterbacking.

https://avherald.com/h?article=5018aa32&opt=0

Runway conditions are posted here

[Chaxterium]

Hey....an intelligent post after the children had page 5 to themselves. Did we ever get an answer of what kind of an approach was used.

There's an ILS to 26 and I don't see any NOTAMs saying it was out of service so with the weather at the time assuming they were on the ILS makes sense. Otherwise there is an RNAV. LNAV/VNAV mins get you down to 253' and LPV gets you down to 200'.

I see a NOTAM that the PAPIs are out on 26 but I'm not sure when that NOTAM came into affect.

[digits_]

I'm not saying a GA pilot cant be fatigued, but to repeat what the guy above said your reasons for being in the seat are completely different.

Most pilots would define GA as everything thats 'non-airline'. I assume your post is talking about private pilots travelling in their own aircraft or a rented aircraft?

Based on that assumption, let's go through your statements:

You have every option to just sleep in, stop on the ground and have a nap, leave late.

Not if you've booked a rental plane that needs to be back at time X, are planning on going into an airport that closes at time Y, need to go to a meeting, etc.

Full control over what kind of rest you get b4 you arrive at your aircraft..

Perhaps. Private pilots often have jobs. Some of those jobs prevent you from sleeping whenever you want. You seem to be under the impression the private pilot has unlimited time and resources to fly whenever he wants. That's not the reality.

plus you would not be operating in any form of bad weather (presumably).

Why not?
Bad weather is also quite relative. A forecasted PROB30 OVC009 at your destination might be a non event for an ATPL holder, but for a VFR pilot I'm sure it's causing a bit of stress.

So if a GA pilot CHOOSES to fly when he is extremely fatigued (with zero pressure ot expectation for them to do it)

Your passengers might have something to do with that. Would you rather disappoint 100 people you don't know, or 3 people you care deeply about? Do you want to cancel that birthday trip, or that 'hey I'm going to propose to my girlfriend in the air!'-flight?

Note that an airline pilot *also* chooses (not) to fly when he is extremely fatigued. He can say no. Anyone can say no. He's not even legally allowed to do it even if he wanted to!

then yes, you will not recieve the same sympathy as an airline pilot. I dont really understand how you can even refute that? It's not an "airline" vs GA pilot debate.

Seems like you're trying to turn it into that though.

Airlines are known to operate in one of the most fatiguing and safety sensitive jobs that exist, why do you think there is SUCH an oversight and safety and reporting system in place to monitor this?

You should go talk to a medevac pilot.

[bobcaygeon]

Does flair employ TFW’s?

They just started recruiting in Africa for permanent immigrant workers because they can't find enough qualified pilots in Canada that will work for them at the current wages.

How is that even allowed? Pay your f**king pilots proper wages, and things like this won’t happen.

Sure it won't. WJ and AC have both done it as well on runways the length or longer runway and not after a red eye. ie tail wind, wet runway, reverser mel'd.....

Money fixes everything lol.

[averageatbest]

They just started recruiting in Africa for permanent immigrant workers because they can't find enough qualified pilots in Canada that will work for them at the current wages.

How is that even allowed? Pay your f**king pilots proper wages, and things like this won’t happen.

Sure it won't. WJ and AC have both done it as well on runways the length or longer runway and not after a red eye. ie tail wind, wet runway, reverser mel'd.....

Money fixes everything lol.

Look at the bottom end pay for the three airlines... Flair is the highest IIRC.

Money doesn't fix it, but the shit pay is definitely an issue in our industry.

[cdnavater]

As a GA pilot you fly once in a while, maybe for a few hours at a time. Unless you have worked as a professional pilot, you have no idea of the stress and exhaustion. These things include:
- abusive chief pilots
- 14 hour duty days, recently reduced.
- low pay, and forced to pick up extra flying to make ends meet, resulting in fatigue.
- many nights away from home.

Overall, I enjoy the job but there are many stressors that come with it. So again, unless you actually have worked as a professional pilot, it’s pretty difficult for you to truly understand.

I flew 2, 3 hour legs from Victoria to Regina as a GA pilot to go to a course, i was fatigued. I just finished a long stressful work week at my regular job on the night shift doing 13 hours shifts, i left at 6am on the weekend (complete opposite sleep schedule as I'm used to) and didn't get any sleep the night before as I was stressing about the weather and no other mode of transportation would have got me there in time other than flying my plane. Funny how "get there itis" is only ever thrown at GA. ANY pilot can be stressed or fatigued for any number of personnel or professional reasons outside of the cockpit and that can be on their mind when they fly. Yes i have flown commercially for several years, so i know what its like

When i was doing Hope Air, did lots of ZBA - YYU - YXU or YTZ - ZBA. Granted not every day, but in a 182, do the math, more than a few hours.

Granted, night is harder. I’ve done some 3 hour legs on a dark overcast night a few times. No AP. Yeah, that tired me.

As for the other poster, idiot back at you. Thousands of truckers run through the night, my brother is one of them, pulling double trailers on the nutty 401. 10-12 straight hours.

Sound easier?

You’re the fucken idiot, I did three years of long haul trucking, and sure there are drivers who drive through the night but go to a truck stop during the day and there’s plenty of parking, get to a truck stop too late and you drive to the next rest stop and hope for parking.
The only time I drove through the night was a month of teams driving, that was it for me on that, who the @#$! could sleep with a driver who’s as tired as you are up front. I would venture to guess the amount of truck drivers who drive through the night is on par with the cargo pilots who fly through the night. If you’re always on night shift, easy to adjust but having done red eyes and stand ups, I guarantee this crew was not rested to the CARS standard.

[pelmet]

I guarantee this crew was not rested to the CARS standard.

Just curious what rested to the CARS standard means?

[cdnavater]

I guarantee this crew was not rested to the CARS standard.

Just curious what rested to the CARS standard means?

I’m curious, do you think they got 8 hours of prone rest before their 6 pm check in and I don’t mean woke up at 0600 after 8 hours sleep, then 12 hours later you’re at work.

[pelmet]

I guarantee this crew was not rested to the CARS standard.

Just curious what rested to the CARS standard means?

I’m curious, do you think they got 8 hours of prone rest before their 6 pm check in and I don’t mean woke up at 0600 after 8 hours sleep, then 12 hours later you’re at work.

I don't know what they got for rest. I'm not even sure if they started in Vancouver or in YKF. I was just curious what your interpretation is of rested to CAR's standard. Once that is clarified, at some point, I will be able to see if they were or not. Do you mean 8 hours of prone rest prior to any flight.

Specific details would be appreciated.

[ogopogo]

Cripes, after all this discussion about fatigue, it hasn’t been established that the crew in question even did a turnaround?

[Chaxterium]

Cripes, after all this discussion about fatigue, it hasn’t been established that the crew in question even did a turnaround?

No! The most important thing right now is figuring out whether truckers or pilots have it worse.

[Tbayer2021]

I personally think GA pilots have it much worst than everyone else. I'm honestly blown away TC isn't letting them operate airliners considering how superior their ADM is, and how much better they handle fatigue.

[Just another canuck]

Cripes, after all this discussion about fatigue, it hasn’t been established that the crew in question even did a turnaround?

According to the thread in the Flair forum, it sounds like they did. And based on Flair’s model of limited overnights, it makes sense.

The numbers posted about the landing performance sound right to me. I was going to check myself but I guess I deleted the app. Pooled water? No. I don’t think so. And the difference between wet and dry is not a lot. We used autobrake 3 regularly on the Boeing. I think I’ve used medium once on the Airbus. After flying the Airbus and experiencing its autobrake system, the Boeing is so inferior, they’re not even comparable. I remember standing on the brakes on the Boeing and it just didn’t seem to decelerate like you think it should.

They landed long. That’s what happened. IMHO. Did fatigue have anything to do with that? Maybe. Low vis and light rain could also have caused an early flare which resulted in the long landing. Have seen that a lot and have done it myself. Did fatigue have anything to do with that? Maybe.

[accountant]

Maybe all of you pilots complaining about fatigue should spend less time griping on AV Canada and more time resting?

[rookiepilot]

Could have been fatigue. Could have been this. (Na, it could never be something like this)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Col ... light_2286

[pelmet]

Could have been fatigue. Could have been this. (Na, it could never be something like this)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Col ... light_2286

Is there particular a reason why you have posted a link to an accident where cocaine use was a factor?