Three Months till the MUSIC stops!...TOPS

Doc · Post by **Doc** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:59 am

Well, the hiring spree we have enjoyed in Canada over the past few months is about to come to a grinding halt! I predict the CanJet layoffs are just the tip of the iceberg. Sure, companies like Jazz and WestJet are going to take some of these guys, but, some will be tired of playing the "game" and, will be really happy to settle for CMA, NCA and Borek etc. So, if there is a seat out there with "your" name on it, now would be a good time to take it! Now, this is just my opinion. And I have been wrong in the past...BUT, I've also been right!

uwillpay · Post by **uwillpay** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:24 am

IMO, you're jumping the gun...at least in using CanJet as an example. Yeah, dumping 100 experienced, Boeing-rated guys on the market will probably slow it down for some other types of drivers coming from turboprop jobs trying to progress. But what you have to understand is this:

CanJet didn't shut down due to poor industry conditions. The company is crying poverty, yet the loads over the summer were very high. (Yes, the yields may have been a different story!) But that pax capacity will have to be absorbed elsewhere, mainly AC/Jazz/WestJet...who have ALSO been having record load factors.

CanJet's situation is union-busting at it's slimiest. Not to be confused with an industry downturn. Hence the shock value in the press, the industry, and the employee group.

I do agree, the "good times" never go on forever, been through about 4 cycles now myself. But I don't think we're there quite yet.

My 2 cents.

Localizer · Post by **Localizer** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:16 am

I don't think we'll see the cycle take its down-turn for sometime to come. Most of the industries know-it-alls have predicted this to be one of the longest running cycles to date, so lets hope they're right and continue to let the good times roll .....

Loc

Doc · Post by **Doc** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:19 am

I've "jumper the gun" before. And I hope you're right! But two beers says, three months from now, 3500 hour guys wont be getting jobs as easy as they are today.

pika · Post by **pika** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:22 am

SSV, WJ, AC/JAZZ, KFC, Cargojet will absorb the CanJet guys in a flash. None if any will return to turboprops. Once you are in the jet world you generally stay there. The current pilot hiring situation has too much momentum to stop in three months (barring the unforesen of course...). I don't believe CanJet was an indicator of any sort regarding the health of the Canadian industry.

TopperHarley · Post by **TopperHarley** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:37 am

It CANT stop until me and all my fellow co-workers are off the ramp

Doc · Post by **Doc** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:46 am

Chris....are you still on a ramp?? It's been over a year...no?

gr8gazu · Post by **gr8gazu** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:55 am

pika wrote:The current pilot hiring situation has too much momentum to stop in three months (barring the unforesen of course...). I don't believe CanJet was an indicator of any sort regarding the health of the Canadian industry.

I agree with your statement on Canjet. It is not a reflection of the industry or general economic conditions. The current hiring trends won't last but I also don't think Doc is that far off. I give it 6 months.

The momentum has in the past stopped and even reversed overnight. Those of us in the industry in the early 80's can attest to that. Very seldom does hiring trickle down. The norm is a sudden stop!

. . · Post by **. .** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 11:16 am

Jazz/AC/WJ are now taking more than 100 guys a month, so the 94 CanJet guys should just be a hiccup if anything in the hiring boom going on now. As long as the retirement age stays at 60 for AC the boom should continue at a good clip. However, if we were to see that age reach 65 the boom would simply slow down for a few years and then spool back up.

Who knows though, I can't imagine many on Sept 9th 2001 would have been able to guess where the industry would be 1 month later.

TopperHarley · Post by **TopperHarley** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 11:48 am

Doc wrote:Chris....are you still on a ramp?? It's been over a year...no?

Today is my 13 month anniversary, so hopefully it won't be too much longer. People have spent longer than this, so I guess I can't complain.

co-joe · Post by **co-joe** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:42 pm

C-HRIS wrote:
Doc wrote:Chris....are you still on a ramp?? It's been over a year...no?
Today is my 13 month anniversary, so hopefully it won't be too much longer. People have spent longer than this, so I guess I can't complain.

Sure you could...we just won't be listening.

No way Doc, the DJ is just getting another record ready, he's amping up the beats for a crazy hard house set the likes that have never been seen in aviation since the glory days.

My vote is get yer dancing shoes on, mamma's got her squeeze box, daddy's ripping the turn tables, and 94 Canjetters will be working before you know it. I'd bet at least a few of them get re-hired once the dust settles and Canjet solidifies its position in the charter market.

Plus Jazz and WJ will take the rest. You remember Jetsgo? How long were those pilots out of work? No that long I think. I bet 3 months and they'll all be dancing if they want to be.

pika · Post by **pika** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 2:54 pm

The five or so retained CJ pilots seems a little thin to run a charter operation...

Dash-Ate · Post by **Dash-Ate** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 4:26 pm

You were saying?...

Air Canada Announces October Customer Service Layoffs
Airline Local 2002 / Section locale aérienne 2002
http://www.caw2002tca.ca
1 800 932 4564 / 1 888 226 8885
Air
Canada

September 5, 2006

Airline has Moral Obligation to Implement Voluntary Mitigation Programs

On September 5 the CAW Air Canada Bargaining Committee was informed by senior management that the mainline carrier would begin to reduce staff at call centres and airports in early October 2006.

“In spite of high fuel prices Air Canada is still making lots of money. The company is approaching historic profit levels and has a moral obligation to its employees to reduce staff in voluntary ways”, said Leslie ****, President-elect of CAW Local 2002. “The CAW is willing to work creatively with the airline to ensure that no one is laid-off on an involuntary basis.”

Air Canada management has provided the CAW with the following breakdown of layoffs at both airports and call centres.

Airports

Station Full Time Part Time
Halifax 7 0
Ottawa 2 0
Toronto 62 54
Winnipeg 7 4
Calgary 20 0
Vancouver (see Note 1) 30 17

Note 1: Vancouver Aeroplan will absorb all displaced employees from YVR airport

Call Centres

Station Full Time Part Time
Saint John, NB 30 0
Toronto 30 0
Winnipeg 20 0

The CAW will keep members informed of progress on voluntary mitigation programs. For further information contact your Bargaining Committee Representative.

Leslie **** , President-elect
Chad Johnston, Atlantic Region; Marcel Rondeau, Eastern Region; Frances Galambosy, Central Region;
Paul Janssen, Western Region; Sandi McManus, Pacific Region

classiv · Post by **classiv** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 7:36 pm

The US economy is possibly looking at recession in the next year, and some of the latest stats are showing a slow down in the Cdn economy.

I give the hiring wave another 6 months, if that.

Remember, when the economy starts to go down, and it will, the airlines are the first to feel it.

I personally would not be the least bit suprised to see half the AC new hires at the EI office this time next year. Sorry, but old age has made me a true cynic.

Still, with rumours of this great hiring wave, I find it hard to believe employers can get away with paying their crews what they do... generally when the demand for workers is high, wages go up.

But as we all know aviation operates on a set of rules that are totally different from the rest of the world.

flynbutcher · Post by **flynbutcher** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:16 pm

Theres always Asia and Europe. I'd say they could take 94 a day for a long time to come, if you are willing.

classiv · Post by **classiv** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:13 am

If you're a high time Jet Captain I suppose...

Judging by what I read on PPRUNE, Cathy has no problems getting people into interviews...

talkinghead · Post by **talkinghead** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 6:48 am

I say 6-8 months. We might even see some layoffs.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 3:23 pm

with this industry things can change so fast in a day. I hope you are wrong though Doc, but I have to wonder how long it can keep up at the current rate. I figure another 6 months and I will be in good place no matter what happens.

J31 · Post by **J31** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:32 am

merlin wrote:with this industry things can change so fast in a day. I hope you are wrong though Doc, but I have to wonder how long it can keep up at the current rate. I figure another 6 months and I will be in good place no matter what happens.

Are you retiring

merlin · Post by **merlin** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:35 am

lol.... yeah I wish!

Dust Devil · Post by **Dust Devil** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:21 pm

Oil is on the way down. Doc could be right.

gr8gazu · Post by **gr8gazu** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:27 pm

Doc is right! It is just the timing that is in question...

desksgo · Post by **desksgo** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:37 pm

The question is Doc, does your crystal ball see a correlation between this music stoppage and an increase regarding pay for PPC posts on avcanada?

All I know is that with desksgo getting hit with the impending layoffs, an increase in stupid posting shall transpire. You have all been warned.

pika · Post by **pika** » Wed Sep 13, 2006 11:03 am

Lifted from another forum. Maybe the ride isn't over just yet.

I see in the Calgary Herald this morning Kelowna Flightcraft is holding a job fair this weekend in Calgary.

Ad indicates they are looking for all kinds of specialised maintenance people and pilots.

Never seen KF do this before, a sign of the times perhaps ??

monkeyspankmasterflex · Wed Sep 13, 2006 11:47 am

BP CEO sees long-term drop in oil prices
Associated Press
Midland Reporter-Telegram
06/25/2006
Email to a friendPost a CommentPrinter-friendlyBERLIN (AP) -- Oil prices could drop to about $40 a barrel in the medium term as new supplies are found, and might fall even further in the long term, the chief executive of BP PLC said, according to an interview published Monday.

BP CEO Lord Browne cautioned that "we cannot really expect that prices will drop back sharply in the short term," the interview with German weekly Der Spiegel said.

However, he noted that large new oil fields are still being found and that regions such as West Africa have significant oil supplies, the report said.

Browne said sources such as Canada's oil sands also can be tapped profitably, adding that production costs still amount only to a small proportion of the price.

"It is very likely that, in the medium term, prices will stand at about $40 on average," Browne was quoted as saying. "In the very long run, even $25 to $30 are possible."

Oil prices have soared recently, pushed up notably by tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions. Iran said over the weekend it had accepted some parts of a Western offer aimed at getting it to drop its nuclear program, but rejected others.

Light sweet crude for July delivery was up 36 cents Monday to $71.99 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Three Months till the MUSIC stops!...TOPS

Three Months till the MUSIC stops!...TOPS

Air Canada Announces October Customer Service Layoffs

Is it Time to Sell Your YYC Condo?