Jet fuel prices/layoffs

[Nick678]

Anyone here predict that the increase in the price of jet will trigger reductions and eventual layoffs?

[flieslikeachicken]

An increase in fuel prices will not lead to layoffs.

If you want to be worried about layoffs, look at the economy. If people aren't buying tickets, then you have a revenue issue, and then you have need to a reduction in flights.

[LR2000]

Anyone here predict that the increase in the price of jet will trigger reductions and eventual layoffs?

Every time I step on a domestic flight it’s generally full in peak times. Going to the states, light loads, leaving I’ve seen heavier loads. Hard to tell.

I know people may not be renovating their homes and rather spend it on vacations.

It just depends what people spend their money on (if they choose to spend it)

[Launchpad1]

Anyone here predict that the increase in the price of jet will trigger reductions and eventual layoffs?

I doubt the cost of jet fuel will cause layoffs directly, however if the Hormuz situation goes on for another couple of months the cost to the world economy could.

Increasing prices of Liquid Gas, plastics, diesel and food could start to have people considering whether going on vacation is a good idea.

If the Hooters get involved in blocking the Bab-el-Mandeb then things could get serious pretty fast.

[‘Bob’]

Anyone here predict that the increase in the price of jet will trigger reductions and eventual layoffs?

Every time I step on a domestic flight it’s generally full in peak times. Going to the states, light loads, leaving I’ve seen heavier loads. Hard to tell.

I know people may not be renovating their homes and rather spend it on vacations.

It just depends what people spend their money on (if they choose to spend it)

You can’t base the health of the economy individual load factors.

Yield management means that airlines are quite efficient at filling up planes in all but the thinnest markets or worst downturns.

Your full plane used to have higher fares, more progressive fare buckets, fewer connections since they used to have direct service from an originating city, more blackouts for points travel, no upgrades, and was 4 times a day not two.

[Blackdog0301]

Don't worry guys. This will all be taken care of when the Tuesday deadline is here.

[Eric Janson]

Anyone here predict that the increase in the price of jet will trigger reductions and eventual layoffs?

The issue is the coming shortage of jet fuel. It may not be possible to operate flights.

Last tankers from the Middle East are getting close to their destinations - no more after they arrive.

Some charts.

https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/3604 ... countries/

An interesting article

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/europ ... pply-shock

[Nick678]

Anyone here predict that the increase in the price of jet will trigger reductions and eventual layoffs?

I doubt the cost of jet fuel will cause layoffs directly, however if the Hormuz situation goes on for another couple of months the cost to the world economy could.

Increasing prices of Liquid Gas, plastics, diesel and food could start to have people considering whether going on vacation is a good idea.

If the Hooters get involved in blocking the Bab-el-Mandeb then things could get serious pretty fast.

Fuel, being the biggest expense at airline will definitely affect the decision making of management. Most the Asian countries import 95% of their oil and it may become cost prohibitive to charge appropriate airfare to cover the cost and make a profit. WS just cancelled 1000 flights in May. If we follow suit I can see layoffs on the horizon. I hope I'm wrong.

[AA123456]

I'd have to dig back a bit but there were some very bold (irresponsible) statements made regarding Air Canada's wind down and general opinion on fuel hedging at some point pre-2019. These statements were always a ticking time bomb for AC, analysts have pressed management on this for years. If you don't understand fuel hedging in the global transport sector you need to spend the 5 mins chatting with Grok. This is the single biggest black swan event to hit Canadian aviation in decades.. entire careers and long term outcomes are about to be completely upended. Perfect time for a CEO to resign gracefully IMO. Buckle up boys. maybe don't sell the campervans quite yet. You can debate this all you want a million times over. Nothing in this business survives fuel price spikes and shortages to compound. Nothing.

[Launchpad1]

Fuel, being the biggest expense at airline will definitely affect the decision making of management.

For sure, but they will just pass those costs onto the consumer with fuel surcharges. Those surcharges won't put the cost of a ticket up by that much, what's an extra $20 per ticket if you want a vacation badly enough. The thing that will affect people's desicions to buy that ticket (or not) is if they feel unsecure in their own jobs.

[Nick678]

Fuel, being the biggest expense at airline will definitely affect the decision making of management.

For sure, but they will just pass those costs onto the consumer with fuel surcharges. Those surcharges won't put the cost of a ticket up by that much, what's an extra $20 per ticket if you want a vacation badly enough. The thing that will affect people's desicions to buy that ticket (or not) is if they feel unsecure in their own jobs.

Well shit, I hope you’re right.

I was thinking overseas operations might be impacted more significantly. I believe jet has doubled in price and that’s big increase on 100,000 liters required for one flight from yvr-hkg

Im going back to ramen noodles just incase

[Launchpad1]

Well shit, I hope you’re right.

Haha me too!

[goldeneagle]

For sure, but they will just pass those costs onto the consumer with fuel surcharges.

How well did that work when Cuba ran out of jet fuel ?

Most dont seem to realize, the shortages haven't really started yet, fuel out of the gulf was still flowing 5 weeks ago, and the tankers that left then are just now at unloading ports. Thing is, there is no more coming to many of those destinations, so while fuel may be expensive today, it will become unavaiable in the near future at various destinations. Even if things went 'back to nornal' tomorrow, it'll be a couple months before tankers start arriving at those places again. I expect to see some asian destinations announcing that foreign carriers will no longer be able to buy fuel for the trip home sooner rather than later, any supply they have left will be held for domestic carriers.

For domestic stuff, yah, fuel is going to be more expensive, but at some long haul destinations it will soon be classed as unobtainium, cant get it at any price.

[Avcanada123]

Fuel, being the biggest expense at airline will definitely affect the decision making of management.

For sure, but they will just pass those costs onto the consumer with fuel surcharges. Those surcharges won't put the cost of a ticket up by that much, what's an extra $20 per ticket if you want a vacation badly enough. The thing that will affect people's desicions to buy that ticket (or not) is if they feel unsecure in their own jobs.

This is blatantly wrong and downplays the risk. According to CIBC analysts Air Canada needs a 20% increase in ticket prices to cover the cost of the additional gas. That's taking into account that Q2 2026 has a 25% fuel hedge at .69/liter plus distribution costs.

[ChunderBay]

Any company who lays off because of this was going to lay off anyways

Much like the covid nonsense many will use this as a excuse to charge more, provide less, etc