Are things worse than post 9/11?

[Rudy]

I wasn't in the industry at that time and I was wondering how it compares to the current atmosphere of layoffs and downsizing. I was just finishing up my schooling and multi-ifr a few months after 9/11. I spent about a year and a half after that trying to land a non-flying entry level position with a small airline or float operation. Do you feel the current situation is worse for pilots?

[iflyforpie]

Nope.

I started flying in 2003 and spent the years 2005-2007 not flying at all due to economics.

I have had a good flying job for two years now and there is no shortage of work for me.

Results typical? Probably not. But just because economic times are bad doesn't mean it's bad for everybody.

[skybaron]

Things are in the shitter more now than then.

[TG]

Are we there yet !? at the bottom of the wave ? Looks more like we are ridding it all the way to a coral reef.

In the space of a few months we have seen the US Dollars matching up with the Canadian one.
We've seen fuel price going up to the roof.
And now that's all the investment stuff going down hill faster than a bobsleigh for all kind of economical reasons.

Two out of three seems to be sort of back to normal.
But the third one means that people/companies are scared to invest, scared to spend, scared to do anything.
On other things, this will eventually badly snowball into the aviation industry.

Now, as I want to be wrong so I hope someone will contradict myself with something else than Tarot cards



We are doomed, I tell you we are doomed

['effin hippie]

I'd say just as bad.
I finished college July '01 and started the road trip Oct '01.

I got a ramp/dispatch job Dec '01 and was exactly 1 year before I did any flying, and I still did non-flying duties for another 6 months.

Out of 12 from my college program I think only one guy built time faster than me, he went to Air Sprint, which was a real bright spot during the '01 - '03 period, expanded quite a bit as I recall; but I think he did have to do a fair bit of grooming etc for a while too.

So there you go, I think I had a fairly average experience for the time. How many low-timers are walking into full-time flying positions this summer? Not many I'll bet.

ef

[mcrit]

It's not worse than post 9/11.....yet.

[Invertago]

If you are low time and have other schooling you want to accomplish, the down turn is a good time to do it in. Doubt many fresh CPLs are grabbing jobs at the moment. None that I've seen, actually I've seen a few of them working non aviation jobs at the moment though.


It would save some a lot of money if they could finish their CPL and go straight to EI rather then blow a ton on a road trip only to come crawling back home right now. But, alas, gotta get a job before you can collect the pogey.

[KAG]

Not as bad as Post Sept 11th, not by a long shot.
Lets recall...AC and Jazz layoff didn't rehire for 4 years, C3/royal/canjet bust, 2 year ramp contract common, little to no movment 703/704 outfits.
Still along way down the slide for things to get that bad again.

[ticasse]

Not as bad. Low times still finding jobs. Had two offers for flying jobs in the past 2 weeks and I don't even have 1000hrs yet. Poeple still need to move around this country and it's not going to stop tomorrow.

[sepia]

In between February 21st - March 19th 2002 there was 11 job posts.

Of the 11, 5 were for instructor positions, 3 were for overseas work, one of which was for training on blackhawk helicopters.

The same period of time this year had 20 postings. The general quality of the jobs this year blows the 2002 selection away too. Lots of corporate jet captains etc. The stuff in 2002 topped out with light twins or SE turbine stuff in pretty undesirable locations.

While I don't claim that my quick comparison is a definitive report on the health of our industry, I think it gives a pretty good sense of the movement. Things now aren't even in the same ball park as they were in 2002. I remember seeing the stack of resumes for guys wanting to come work the ramp. It was literally an inch thick. Companies are advertising for ramp jobs now, good companies too. If they're advertising they clearly don't have a 1" thick stack of resumes for guys wanting to move to fort arm-pito.

We've currently got porter about to ramp up more hiring for the summer, WJ to resume in the fall, the possibility of more Jazz or Sunwing hiring this year too. That kind of uplift didn't exist in 2002. WJ was hiring, but it didn't make up for the downward pressure put on the industry by laid off airline guys bumping down.

That said, things can always get worse. Hopefully we don't see the industry set a new low. We certainly don't need it.

[beaverbob]

Much worse now.
After Sept 11, 2001 The aviation industry suffered as a result of security reaction to the terrorist attacks. However most other industry and land and water transportation just kept on going. For example forest industry never slowed down in BC, but is nearly dead here this year.
BB

[canpilot]

I haven't really been in the industry long enough to say for sure... I was around doing training... and working the ramp in the 9/11 era... so I had a feel for it... But still, I can't be sure...

Here's what I do know... closing in on 830TT I'm back on the ramp... certain companies posting for rampies had resumes in the thousands... PER POST (eg, avcan, paper, craigslist) some scuzz air types have had drivers with 6,000 -12,000 hours and in a few cases 767 PPC's applying for twin piston jobs.

Employers are yet again asking for several year commitments to the ramp for a seat...

Mining is in the tank... in a big way! I know of a junior mining company manager that has several calls from drill companies on a per-day basis... Mining might be in the tank for a while... with the lack of credit... and funding for the juniors... And some resource dependent 703/704's are being hit hard...no drilling= no drill support=no flying

Swine flu... won't help and neither will this B.S. pax. bill of rights... We're being kicked when we're down... and it seems the hits just keep on coming...

There seems to be quite a few variables..at work with the economy at the momento.. some of the economists don't have a handle on whats going on.. Undoubtedly, these are affecting aviation as well.. 9/11 seemed a lot more black and white.

There also seems to be quite a bit of variability to the "crash" B.C. , NWT, ALTA, Yukon seemed to get the shortest end of the stick with the collapse of the resource sector. (these parts seemed to be going the hardest in the upswing)-I could be wrong as I live here.. tho..and therefore they crashed the hardest..

Thus, comparing this downturn to 9/11 tho seems like comparing apples and oranges...

[sepia]

Much worse now.
After Sept 11, 2001 The aviation industry suffered as a result of security reaction to the terrorist attacks. However most other industry and land and water transportation just kept on going. For example forest industry never slowed down in BC, but is nearly dead here this year.
BB

That sector may be down, but imagine how bad it would suck to have literally a thousand ultra qualified guys bump back down in the industry hunting for jobs, any jobs. These ultra qualified guys will know chief pilots, they'll have a previous work record at the companies. Just think about it logically for a second. At least today you're just fighting with other equally qualified guys for jobs. You wanna see bad, fight for the same job with a guy who has 5000 more hours than you, and is old work buddies with the CP. To cite a few example, in 2002-2003 I worked with one guy who had an a320 type rating, hewas flying caravans. I worked with another guy at the same company who had been flying F-28's and was on course for the a320, he was flying PC-12's. These jobs weren't in Toronto or Vancouver either. They had left their families in the city and had moved up to hells bedpan to do a victory lap in god awful cities they'd left 10 years prior. That to me defines the industry low as I know it.

[EPR]

No ,not even close. There were airline pilots working at Home Depots back then. As KAG pointed out Jazz and AC had deep cuts, companies such as Royal/Canada 3000, ACE, JetsGo, Knight Hawk Express, Canjet, and ZIP went tits-up. Likly others aswell.

[The Old Fogducker]

Completely different worlds ... remember that the post 9-11 monetary losses suffered by the world's airlines exceeded all of the profits earned by all airlines since the Second World War.

This isn't even as bad as the 1982 recession in my opinion .... and was a manufactured crisis so Obama could rush through the Democratic Party's "Scary hidden agenda."

The Old Fogducker

[Cat Driver]

This isn't even as bad as the 1982 recession in my opinion .... and was a manufactured crisis so Obama could rush through the Democratic Party's "Scary hidden agenda."

The Old Fogducker

I do believe you are on to the underlying cause for this crisis OFD.

[Invertago]

Only a year ago, the left wing conspircy theorists where preaching the neo-cons where out to get us with their secret adgenda... now its the right wing conspircys saying the liberal commies are plotting to take over the world lol.



Save us Superman!

[Hedley]

This isn't even as bad as the 1982 recession in my opinion

yeah, that was a bad one.

[Speedbird Junior]

Interesting to read the state of affairs with you guys. Having left Canada a few years back and now being in the UK, let me tell you that things are well and truly in the shitter here. We've seen many a charter company (Excel, Silverjet for example - both Longhaul carriers) go under, and there are guys being laid off with 1000's hrs jet time, therefore saturating the market and leaving nil chance for the low(er) timers. Its not quite at the level of having to flip burgers, but hell I am thinking of starting a chain just to take the out of work guys, as I think things will get worse before they get better. Then there is the crazy "pay for TR" bs which seems to be endemic to the industry here. (and a TR will hit you for £25K min!!)

Unemployment is set to exceed 3 million, the property market is in the hole despite the Bank of England base interest rate being just 0.5% Banks have been left by the British government to have free reign on the amount of credit / debt they incur and financially everything is now screwed. Despite the government propping them up with billions, they still won't lend, so every man and his dog who has a small company and needs help cannot get credit. Very lame.

Truly sorry to hear you guys are starting to suffer this crap too and the industry is suffering. At least it seems (from what I read) that the Canadian banks are more closely regulated, therefore partially preventing the melt down we have seen here. Lets hope things sort themselves out sooner rather than later. Recent predictions here say recovery in 12-18 months.

Blue skies to all.

[Prairie Chicken]

From a different tack, in over 30 years in the business I have never, ever seen the industry hiring as it was in the last four or five years ... until Sep 2008. Typically, being able to get & hold a flying job was somewhere between impossible & really tough, and once a decade or so the demographics opened up and there was a brief period of hiring--sometimes as short as 6 months--before going back to being very difficult for many more years. That, IMHO, is why our culture is so oriented to taking whatever the operator throws at us.

If you've just come into the industry in the last few years ... I'm sorry to tell you that the current period is closer to normal than otherwise.

[yfly]

Very true Prairie Chicken. The hiring in recent years hasn't provided the weeding out proccess that normally occurs in this industry as there were jobs for everyone. Even in tough times, there have been jobs, if people were willing to accept them. If it becomes really tight again, the weeding will begin and several people will move on to their next career.

[Joe the Plumber]

just being nit picky, but we are, and ever will be, post 9/11

[Rudy]

Well I heard your not even a licensed plumber.

[wallypilot]

In the couple years following the 9/11 attacks, things were definitely worse then. There were hundreds of resumes on desks chasing one ramp position. We have a long ways to go to get to the level of inactivity we saw in 2002-2003. Not saying it won't happen....i kind of think it won't....but I think it will continue to be slow for a while, though. Probably into 2011....but there will still be jobs here and there for the truly dedicated. I was lucky to have a good job through those years...many weren't so lucky.

[Double Wasp]

It is nowhere near as bad as post 911. The only reason why it sounds so bad is because we have 6 or so 24 hour news stations that have to have something to report on so they beat anything they find to talk about to death resurrect it then kill it again!

You would not have see this post 911:

Bearskin Airlines offers scheduled, charter and freight services in Ontario and Manitoba.

We are a Company that values commitment, and provides a secure environment for long term employment. We offer a comprehensive benefit package to all full time employees including extended health care, life insurance, pension, dental, short term disability, deluxe travel insurance and extensive interline travel discounts including jump seat agreements with several major carriers. Flight Crew have 12 scheduled days off per month.

We are currently seeking qualified applicants who are looking for a challenging and rewarding position as:

Metroliner First Officer
(Thunder Bay, Sioux Lookout & Winnipeg Bases)

Minimum Qualifications:

1200 Hours Total Time
Completion of ATPL or IATRA exams

Preference will be given to candidates with multi time in a 2 crew environment as well as to those with local experience.

Please apply ONLINE and submit resume at http://www.bearskinairlines.com/asf

The only jobs advertised where for a few qualified 747 captains to go work for EVA for 60000.00 a year. No advertising for lower time positions what so ever.

This is not an endorsement of this airline it is just the first appropriate job add I saw.

Cheers
DW