The Maldives Sinking?- Check this out

[The Old Fogducker]

I know many pilots from Canada fly floats in the Maldives, and thought some of you may find this news story interesting, since it goes very much against the local perception that everyone in The Maldives is going to get good at treading water, die if talks at the UN Conference on Climate Change fails.

From "The Spectator" newspaper in Britain ...


Why the Maldives aren't sinking

Nils-Axel Mörner

The President of the Maldives recently held a Cabinet meeting underwater, saying his islands may be submerged. In an open letter, taken from the climate change supplement in the latest issue of the The Spectator, Nils-Axel Mörner assures him his country is safe:

Dear Mr President,

You are obviously very concerned about the effect that sea level rises may have on the Maldives. Your Cabinet has been photographed meeting underwater, and you have even declared that ‘we are going to die’ if the climate change summit in Copenhagen fails. I am now writing with what I hope will be some good news. The scientific side of the situation is quite different to that which you imagine. You are, in fact, not going to die.

Before I continue, I should perhaps state my credentials. I have been a sea-level specialist for 40 years. I launched most of its new theories in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. I solved the problem of the gravitational potential surface, the theory that it changes with time; the rotation of the earth, how it affected the redistribution of the oceans’ masses — and so on. Last year, I was awarded a prize from Algarve university for my ‘irreverence and contribution to our understanding of sea level change’.

We both know that the 1,200 islands of the Maldives are all low-lying with the highest point only some 2.5m (8ft) above sea level. Hence, your nation is vulnerable to extreme storms, tsunamis — and, of course, any possible sea level rise.

The IPCC vision is a rise that by the year 2100 may amount to between 30cm and 50cm. This is based on model calculations. Our figure is a 5cm rise, plus or minus 15cm. In a newspaper article, you have suggested that sea levels may rise by between one and eight metres. Those figures, however, do not concur with the physics and known rates of ice melting. So those figures must be dismissed as impossible.

I have been on no fewer than six different field expeditions to the Maldives. We worked in the lagoon, we drilled in the sea, we drilled in lakes, we looked at the shore morphology — many different environments. We have always found the same thing: a total stability for the last 30 years, preceded by a 20cm drop in sea level in the 1970s.

We have presented a detailed documentation of the sea level changes in the Maldives over the past 4,000 years. The record of the last 500 years may be of special interest to the situation of your islanders. It shows:

The people of the Maldives had no problems surviving the 17th century, which was 50cm higher than now. Nor the last century, where it rose by 20cm. This bodes well for their prospects of surviving the next change.

I recently visited Bangladesh, a country cursed by floods. In the Sundarban delta, I documented very strong coastal erosion despite zero changes in sea level. So, even here, there is no global sea level rise going on today — just as in the Maldives, in Tuvalu and in Vanuatu, to mention a few famous sites claimed already to be in the process of becoming flooded.

By the end of this century, sea level may have risen by between 30cm and 50cm according to the various IPCC scenarios. Our records suggest a maximum of 20cm. Neither of those levels would pose any real problem — simply a return to the situation in the 17th and the 19th to early 20th centuries, respectively.

So why the scare-mongering? Could it be because there is money involved? If you inhabit a tiny island and can convince the world that its very existence is under threat because of the polluting policies of the West, the industrialized nations will certainly respond. The money is likely to flow in more quickly than the ocean will rise.

This is the fourth time I have written to you. Unfortunately, I think there is a problem with your email service because so far I have not received an acknowledgement. For this reason, I have decided to write this open letter in the pages of The Spectator.

So, Mr President, you and your ministers in the Maldives really don’t need to worry about a future life beneath the waves. You should pass on this message to the people of the Maldives. It is high time to release them from this terrible psychological burden.

Yours,
Nils-Axel Mörner

A former lead reviewer for the IPCC, Nils-Axel Mörner was head of Geodynamics at Stockholm University until his retirement in 2005.

Link to the article ... http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/ ... king.thtml

[Rockie]

Seems your Dr. Morner is a bit of a quack who claims to be capable of water divining, and he isn't entirely truthful about his associations. His opinions do not represent the scientific views of the organization he used to belong to either. Here is a study that directly contradicts his methods and conclusions.

http://staff.acecrc.org.au/~johunter/Ch ... lished.pdf

Another site often drawn from by you guys as proof that MMGW doesn't exist is www.junkscience.com. It is run by Steve Milloy who works for fox news, but used to work for the tobacco industry. Not surprisingly this site also tries to debunk the myth that tobacco causes cancer. Guess where his funding comes from?

Exxon/Mobil and Phillip Morris.

[rightseatwonder]

Hope this geoid doesn't have an impact either! For those who are unfamiliar, a geiod is a gravitational anomaly that causes depressions in the sea-level as opposed to the theoretical ellipsoid profile. In other words a lower sea-level than it should be all things being equal. From this picture, you can see that the indian ocean area right where the maldives are (highest point 8 feet above water line) is the larest and deepest geiod on earth... upto 80 METERS lower than theoretical level. Its uphill in all directions.

If I was still in the "dives I'd be more worried about this! The geoid and the monthly beer allotment limits! lol!

[Spokes]

Seems your Dr. Morner is a bit of a quack who claims to be capable of water divining, and he isn't entirely truthful about his associations. His opinions do not represent the scientific views of the organization he used to belong to either. Here is a study that directly contradicts his methods and conclusions.

http://staff.acecrc.org.au/~johunter/Ch ... lished.pdf

Another site often drawn from by you guys as proof that MMGW doesn't exist is http://www.junkscience.com. It is run by Steve Milloy who works for fox news, but used to work for the tobacco industry. Not surprisingly this site also tries to debunk the myth that tobacco causes cancer. Guess where his funding comes from?

Exxon/Mobil and Phillip Morris.

All interesting, but amounts to an ad-homonim attack. What about his assertions? Is the evidence/conclusions good, or flawed. I watched a documentary some time ago on (NGTV? Discovery?) cant remember now. However it showed plenty of evidence that the Maldives are actually rising- well sea levels there are falling there. I have tried to find a comprehensive list of small island nations, cross referenced with how high sea levels have risen, or that have actually sunk. No luck. Are you able to help me with this. I am very currious to see this.

I guess I am still one of those people on the fence. I have always considered myself a man of science, but it seems the science here is hard to find. Most of what I find boils down to "its happeneing, trust us", or x thousand scientist agree. The term "the science is settled" is a huge red flag. Science in no field is ever 'settled'. If it was we would not have reletivity or quantum physics.

The announcemnet that some were trying to suppress any scientific study that ran counter to current climate change theories, and that data was 'massaged' when presenting the famous hockey stick is particularly disturbing. A scientific theory lives by efforts to disprove it, not to try and prove its validity. If the current global warming theories are correct, they should easily withstand any study designed to chip away at them, and therefore become stronger. These scientists should welcome this kind of work not suppress it. Like I said, it will either make the theory stronger, or even on what seems to be an outside chance at the moment, show that they are mistaken. That would be good news for all. (wouldn't it?).

In any case, ad-homonim attacks do not help. Good science does not care were the money comes from. If the science is flawed, attack it, not the person. Do you know were I can find a list of island nations that shows how much water levels have risen at these locations? All I can seem to find are disasterous predictions of what will happen on these places 'when' the water does rise. Not helpful. With the increases we have seen to date in average tempeatures, and the melting of polar ice etc, there should already be some waterlevel rise somewhere I would think.

[Widow]

Venice, Chesapeake Bay and the island nation of Tuvalu might be examples worth researching.

[Rockie]

I have always considered myself a man of science, but it seems the science here is hard to find.

I gave you a link to a very small piece of the science, but here it is again.

http://staff.acecrc.org.au/~johunter/Ch ... lished.pdf

The science isn't hard to find at all if you care to look for it. Google is very handy in that regard. I usually look at the source of information before deciding how much I should trust it. This Dr. Morner fellow it turns out isn't very trustworthy and his views are not supported by his former employers. Lots of arguments posed here are gleaned from websites that are not scientific, but political and industrial in nature like junkscience.com. I think the background of those kinds of things should be exposed don't you?

People here use the East Anglia revelations as absolute proof MMGW doesn't exist. Nonsense. The integrity and motivation of the anti-global warming lobby is far worse but that doesn't seem to bother those very same people at all for some reason. An aviation equivalent to junkscience and friends of science can be found here: http://www.communityair.org. They too have an agenda that bears no resemblance to their public face, and they have the same faithfulness to the truth as the energy industry sponsored anti-GW movement.

[vrrotate]

Spokes, you may find this helpful with regards to sea levels. I just found it today.

http://www.co2science.org/subject/s/subject_s.php

The Global Warming alarmists would have us believe that the world's oceans are rising at an unprecidented rate. As far as I read this is false. Rates of rise have been fairly consistent over the last 100+ years since the Little Ice Age ending just before the 1900's. And in fact there is much evidence that the rate of increase in the oceans over the last 15+ years is lower than the mean rate of increase over the past 100+ years.

I have read research that says that all of the sea level rise can be attributed to thermal expansion of the world's oceans due to the measured increase to global temperatures since the Little Ice Age. I've also read that there is no correlation to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere since the 1950's and the increase to sea levels. That is because the mean sea level rise since the 1950's matches that of the measured increases to the mean sea level since the late 1800's.

Of course I'm no scientist, this is just some of the stuff I've read today.

[Siddley Hawker]

.. but used to work for the tobacco industry.

The Gore fortune was made in the tobacco industry.

[trampbike]

Spokes, I love you.

[Spokes]

I have always considered myself a man of science, but it seems the science here is hard to find.

I gave you a link to a very small piece of the science, but here it is again.

http://staff.acecrc.org.au/~johunter/Ch ... lished.pdf

The science isn't hard to find at all if you care to look for it. Google is very handy in that regard. I usually look at the source of information before deciding how much I should trust it. This Dr. Morner fellow it turns out isn't very trustworthy and his views are not supported by his former employers. Lots of arguments posed here are gleaned from websites that are not scientific, but political and industrial in nature like junkscience.com. I think the background of those kinds of things should be exposed don't you?

...

Thanks for that Rockie. Yes, I do know about Google but it often gives you alot of garbage along with the good stuff. This was a very interesting paper, it is mind boggleing to see how much thought goes into 'mean sea level'. The conclusions that the Maldives are slowly going under water seems clear. It also seems to be (for the last 50 years anyway) very slow. If I read things right, around 4mm/yr. While I am sure in the long run this would not be good if it continued as such, for awhile maybe not given the 20-30cm annual variation.

Again, thanks.

[kevind]

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1288877/

"Gilligan's Island" Quick Before It Sinks (1965)

The professor's bamboo poles in the lagoon indicate that the island is sinking. In an attempt to spare the feelings of the women the men start a futile project in the middle of the night building huts on higher ground

In the end..Gilligan was moving the poles

[Spokes]

If you have read the paper that was in the link that Rockie provided you will see that this is not a madern day equivelant of the Gilligans Island episode.

The lengths they go through in making this determination is mind boggleing.