Overconfidence, what's the cure?

[trampbike]

What is too much and what's not enough? How to gauge oneself?

When learning something and gaining experience, if you are not confident enough or not willing to push yourself a little bit out of your comfort zone, you won't improve. On the other hand, being too confident and pushing yourself too much may (will!) lead to catastrophic results.

Personally, I think I often feel comfortable doing things I should not. For example, once I got confident in my ability to control an airplane in very slow flight, I felt it would somehow make sense to approach just a little bit faster in order to practise real short fields... Here's the related story (bottom of the page): viewtopic.php?f=3&t=60211&start=100

[Big Pistons Forever]

my 02 cents

1) If you are looking for a challenge, work at accurate flying. For the whole flight the aircraft should be exactly at the airspeed, altitude, bank angle, ball in the middle etc etc. Very hard to do in practice but will pay huge dividends as you progress in your flying career

2) Every flying mistake possible has allready been made numerous times. There is a wealth of good accident data on the web. Read the reports and look for the events leading to the crash and the decisions that the pilot made. That way if a similar scenario starts to develop you will be aware of the warning signs.

3) Over confidence is particularly deadly when it comes to pushing weather. The best strategy for low time pilots is to have hard limits. For example I will continue this flight as long as I can maintain 1000 ft above ground. The instant I cannot do this I will turn around.

[Invertago]

The cure for overconfidence is a few scary experiences. Not saying you should go out and scare yourself on purpose, but if you've ever been in the air flying wishing you where on the ground and that voice in your head chimes in saying "You idiot" your over confidence will hopefully be knocked down a notch or so. Hence why they say you should get experience (which often means you've had a few scares) before someone lets you fly a bunch of unsuspecting passengers.

I'd be curious if there are any somewhat experienced pilots who have never had second thoughts about their decision to take off?

[moocow]

OK, I only have about 130 or so hours but here's my take.

Whenever you say to yourself "I can do this", go ahead and ask yourself "Is this safe to do this". The POH is written for a reason so stick to it. Low energy state with low altitude mean you have low probability to recover. Many people spin in at low energy state before. Not exactly the same as your other post but so danger of low and slow:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... tions.html

[767]

In addition to the above posts, the cure is the flight instructor (LF of intensity). After that, the cure is transport canada. In other words, enforcement!

[AEROBAT]

In my opinion there is nothing wrong with practicing things you are not familiar with as long as it is at the right alt. in the right airplane and doing something you are licenced for. In other words don't fly in cloud if you are not IFR, don't do acro in a 172 ect. Every time you land try and hit precisely where you want to touch down, try keeping the plane on one wheel as long as possible when landing, do spins and come out on heading within a few degrees ect.

One of my favourites used to be the hover taxi. This was done on long runways, I would come in and flair for the numbers and just before touching down dial in enough throttle that I would stay about a foot off the runway and "hover" along until just before the intersection then cut the power and get wheels down and exit. It is good low speed practice in a crosswind. Plus it speeds thing up at busy airports.

[Darkwing Duck]

They say there are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old bold pilots. Keep your wits about you. Sometimes it is better to be cautious about doing something and maybe trying again later, but it will be too late if you did something when you should of been cautious.

[The Old Fogducker]

To ad to what Invertago said ...

There is no cure for overconfidence like being in a situation where the adrenaline has burned out, you are bone-tired exhausted, and in the process of praying to God to please get you out of this.

When you finally get on the ground you are so wiped out and the muscle cramps are so bad that you don't know whether to puke first, or get rid of a descending colon of diarrhea right there beside the airplane.

That's a quick cure for overconfidence....although an exceptionally hard lesson.

That said, there is a certain exilaration about having survived one of those experiences.

After one such encounter on the west coast that changed my life and attitude about pushing the weather, I recall the next day was sunny, and as beautiful a day as anyone could ask for. I had asked for the day off to contemplate what I was going to with the rest of my life that had been spared instead of lying on a stainless steel table waiting for someone to identify my smashed up remains.

I was walking around downtown Victoria contemplating whether to continue flying for a living, and had stopped for a red light. On the opposite corner was a stunningly beautiful young blonde woman. Everything about her was absolutely perfect ... the hair style suited her facial shape, the makeup was a combination which highlighted her features impeccably without being over done. Her above the knee hemline dress seemed to have been custom tailored to fit her body and show her feminine curves in an inviting but not provocative way. Her movie star quality legs were accentuated by slightly taller than normal high heels. To my mind, she was simply gorgeous and not a thing about her could possibly have ben improved upon.

As the light turned green, we passed in the crosswalk, I looked her in the eye and she smiled at me. At that moment, I felt so fortunate to be alive and able to see something so pretty and beautiful that God had created. I vowed that I would never again put myself in a position like I had done the previous day. I remember her as if I had just seen her 15 seconds ago and how wonderful it felt to do something as simple as feeling the heat of the sun, to be able to take a nice deep breath, and feel my heart beating in my chest.

Over the next few decades I was to find some new ways to bring on shots of adrenaline, but I never repeated the particular thing that got me in well over my head in crummy weather with an airplane with so many U/S items it was unairworthy ... all over trying to reposition an empty airplane so the sked could go when the wx picked up enough to fly pax for a company that pushed its pilots and was in the process of going bankrupt.

That's when I became a convert to a different way of thinking and living.

Regards,
The Old Fogducker

[Cougar]

There is no cure.

[AuxBatOn]

Cockiness has its place, just not in the cockpit. You can be as cocky as you want in the bar or with your buddies. In anything related to a flight, place it in your flight bag and don't touch it until you're at the bar.

[Bushav8er]

There is no cure.

There is but it has to be revisited from time to time. Its called a check out or flight review, with an instructor at least once a year whether you need one or not. Flying is on-going learning.

I once checked out a licenced and rated young guy on a C180 float so he could rent. He was confident in his abilities and sure he'd know how to handle thing. On the approach to landing I pointed out the gusting conditions evident from the water that weren't there when we departed. "Yeah, yeah - I know" he says and continues his approach. Well I could see that he wasn't correcting for the conditions but elected to allow him continue (I deemed it safe to do so). He hit the water firmly, got airborne again and landed a second time, again not 'pretty'. "Wow, I didn't expect that." "See, you have to notice these things and take corrective actions and stay alert to changing conditions. Don't say 'yeah,yeah' if you don't know - ask."

This same guy, in the winter (I wasn't involved in this one), rents the C180 on skis and takes it to his cottage for the weekend. Next day he starts it without first kicking the skis. Instead he opted to use power to free them, he was confident he could do this. It worked, it came free but the end result was he ran into a dock post screwing the prop and cutting the tail off.

Confidence is believing you can handle similar situations based on previous experience. It is balanced by some 'surprise' moments causing you to re-evaluate and stay more alert. These types will frequently seek council, ask questions, or get a review.

Cockiness is believing you can handle situations - without any basis (experience) to prove it true. These people will blame the bad results on wind, weather, others. This condition can not be cured, except by death, often involving innocent others.

Cockiness has its place, just not in the cockpit. You can be as cocky as you want in the bar or with your buddies. In anything related to a flight, place it in your flight bag and don't touch it until you're at the bar.

Sorry but if one is cocky, it is a personality trait that can't be turned off, it often appears in all areas - including the cockpit. (Unless it is alcohol induced and out of character for the individual)

[AuxBatOn]

Well, you probably haven't met a fighter pilot yet. Most of us are cocky, outside the cockpit. In the brief/cockpit/debrief, we eat a piece of humble pie and take criticism.

[Cougar]

Yes, I understand well about checkouts, and continued training, as factors which USUALLY will manage to knock down an arrogant pilot's ego. Good points -- and -- very true.

However, I believe (even though it appalls me to say it) that there are a few pilots who cannot be trained (or scared) out of their terminal overconfidence. I've just seen it too many times, and, I am VERY unhappy to say, we are dealing with this problem right now, right here.

From what I have seen, if pilots have ANY sense of responsibility, they may be overconfident, but still have enough brains to realize when they've just had a close call, or maybe staggered out of a rotten spot due to only luck -- not their impeccable skills as a Hero Pilot. More than a few guys have been straightened out by scaring the crap out of themselves. Scaring myself sure as hell always registered with me, anyway.

BUT -- I do believe some personalities are so incredibly narcissistic that even scary, life-threatening events have NO effect on their shining egos. When a brand new person is so entirely consumed by watching the Hero Movie running in his head, that he can't pause long enough to even RESPECT the job he's about to do, that is no good, and that person should not be flying.

Even lucky pilots run out at some point.

[winds_in_flight_wtf]

With my limited experience, I would have to say the following:

Everything safety related, or "this is why" type lecturing during my ground school was taught because someone, for all intensive purposes , was killed doing it. There was always a story behind their reasoning. There is this one fellow back a few years ago in BC......." .... for example attempting to turn back towards the field without sufficient altitude thus spinning into the ground. If nobody had been killed doing half the things people talk about around here, then in all honestly we would be doing them more often, with less restrictions. Not saying that people do it and get away with it... but the public knowledge is attained when someone pays the price. I am sure the people who have paid the price wish they were a little "not so confident"

So to answer your question... What is the cure for over confidence? No idea. Perhaps listening to the stories of friends and teachers? Many of the big fish in this industry have lost good friends doing things they might not have done had they had that second chance.

[ETOPS]

Just try picking up women that are "out of your league".

[trampbike]

Thanks all for your replies. Nice story The Old Fogducker.

I applied for the air force 6 weeks ago, will get checked on a taildragger (Aeronca Champ) for the first time next week, and I'm still waiting for Hedley to have a bit of time to teach me upset recoveries and a little aerobatics. Let's hope that the confidence that's left after all this will be a bit more justified then it was before...

[trampbike]

In addition to the above posts, the cure is the flight instructor (LF of intensity). After that, the cure is transport canada. In other words, enforcement!

I'm afraid I don't really get your point.

[AuxBatOn]

I'm afraid I don't really get your point.

Don't worry, you can pretty much ignore his comment. It will only be beneficial for you.

[Hedley]

I'm still waiting for Hedley to have a bit of time to teach me upset recoveries and a little aerobatics

I'm really sorry - I've been unbelievably busy at my day job this spring, which rather annoyingly gets in the way of my flying!

[Airtids]

You start this career with an empty bag of experience, and a full bag of luck. Your goal is to fill the bag of experience before you empty the bag of luck. Overconfidence is a failure of your ability to judge how the bag filling/depeleting process is going...

[HS-748 2A]

You start this career with an empty bag of experience, and a full bag of luck. Your goal is to fill the bag of experience before you empty the bag of luck. Overconfidence is a failure of your ability to judge how the bag filling/depeleting process is going...

That's a good one Airtids - and to complement:

Experience: the lesson you didn't get until just after you needed it.

[Hedley]

One thing that seems obvious to me, but is never mentioned:

Over-confidence is mentioned in the same tone as herpes. Bad, bad, bad. Therefore, the less confidence you have, the better the pilot you are, right? WRONG.

What you need is an appropriate amount of confidence, for your skill level, which is determined mostly by your knowledge and experience, and to a certain amount, by your genetic gifts.

One example is a student pilot that, to quote "Top Gun", has an ego that is writing cheques his body can't cash. We all know the type. He has too much confidence for his low skill level, and he'll make the evening news one of these days.

Another example is a neurotic pilot that's afraid to fly. He (or she) has too little confidence for their skill level. This under-confidence can be bloody annoying for the rest of us, and can end that pilot's flying career because they're simply too scared to ever commit aviation, even when the wx is perfect.

Obviously, what you need is the correct amount of confidence, for your abilities. And, as your abilities grow, so should your confidence. That doesn't make you (the dreaded) "over-confident" though, which in some bizarre egalitarian way implies that everyone should have the same confidence, because everyone has the same skills, which of course is complete nonsense.

Three of my favorite activities:

1) flying
2) motorcycle riding
3) writing software

All of them are highly technique-intensive, and hugely reward a skilled practitioner, and mercilessly punish the clueless. I really like that. Here's a video re: #2:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNh0ba2-X_8

I detest activities that reward the incompetent.

I can't talk about the 4th activity here, but I try to be as good at it as I can, by practicing whenever I get the chance!

[Big Pistons Forever]

One thing that seems obvious to me, but is never mentioned:

Over-confidence is mentioned in the same tone as herpes. Bad, bad, bad. Therefore, the less confidence you have, the better the pilot you are, right? WRONG.

What you need is an appropriate amount of confidence, for your skill level, which is determined mostly by your knowledge and experience, and to a certain amount, by your genetic gifts.

One example is a student pilot that, to quote "Top Gun", has an ego that is writing cheques his body can't cash. We all know the type. He has too much confidence for his low skill level, and he'll make the evening news one of these days.

Another example is a neurotic pilot that's afraid to fly. He (or she) has too little confidence for their skill level. This under-confidence can be bloody annoying for the rest of us, and can end that pilot's flying career because they're simply too scared to ever commit aviation, even when the wx is perfect.

Obviously, what you need is the correct amount of confidence, for your abilities. And, as your abilities grow, so should your confidence. That doesn't make you (the dreaded) "over-confident" though, which in some bizarre egalitarian way implies that everyone should have the same confidence, because everyone has the same skills, which of course is complete nonsense.

Three of my favorite activities:

1) flying
2) motorcycle riding
3) writing software

All of them are highly technique-intensive, and hugely reward a skilled practitioner, and mercilessly punish the clueless. I really like that. I detest activities that reward the incompetent.

I can't talk about the 4th activity here, but I try to be as good at it as I can, by practicing whenever I get the chance!

Best post yet !. ...And I assume your unmentioned 4 th activity is the study of CAR's, something you seem very knowledgable on

[Hedley]

I assume your unmentioned 4 th activity is the study of CAR's

My god, BPF, you're positively psychic! Yes, as a longtime sufferer of insomnia, I find that I require ever-increasing doses of CARs as bed-time reading, to put me to sleep at night. It used to be that one page of CARs would do it, but now I'm up to over 100 pages of CARs that I must read every night, before I can finally fall asleep

Back on topic ... let's take a look at a steady, 10 knot direct crosswind. A student pilot, with a total of 5 hours PIC under his belt, might quite correctly approach that crosswind in a C172 with some trepidation. I would hope.

In the same circumstances, a pipeline patrol pilot with 10,000 hours in a 172 might honestly reply, "What crosswind?"

That doesn't make the pipeline patrol pilot over-confident - he merely has an appropriate amount of confidence for his skill level.

As does the student pilot.

[Shiny Side Up]

In addition to the above posts, the cure is the flight instructor (LF of intensity). After that, the cure is transport canada. In other words, enforcement!

I'm afraid I don't really get your point.

As Auxbaton said, you can pretty much ignore what 767 said. I'm starting to wonder if 767 is the worst instructor ever or the best avcanada troll ever. Either way, TC cures no overconfidence or stupidity, there's a whole thread about that, they merely make reccomendations to others once you have either been punished or killed acting out your own bit of overconfidence.

Three of my favorite activities:

1) flying
2) motorcycle riding
3) writing software

I was with you until 3), but you are right. I'd replace my personal 3) with fishing. They are blessed activities in that they are unrewarding to the impatient, they torment the slow and (sometimes) destroy the stupid. regardless, the comments about confidence are spot on and I'd put a big +1 beside them. Ideally everyone should have the equal amount of confidence which is directly proportional to their capabilities. As skill grows so should confidence in that skill. The real trick of gaining experience is knowing where you can apply new skill and what other similar activities it transfers to in an associative leap. The mistake many make in becoming overconfident is when they make an illogical leap in where they can transfer their skill to.