That infamous "Pilot Shortage"

[Gino Under]

Noted in this week’s Aviation Week....
"Pilot shortage" is a threat that was waxed and waned over the last decade, but which has yet to become a reality - except for some unfortunate airlines in high-growth markets where demand already outpaces supply.
Raising the retirement age for pilots and cutting fleet capacity during the economic downturn postponed the problem for most airlines, but Boeing and others are warning the day of reckoning is fast approaching.
With the five-year reprieve gained by raising the retirement age to 65 drawing to a close, and capacity growth returning, the pilot-shortage threat level is again being raised - even in the U.S., where hundreds of furloughed flight crew remain to be recalled.
Based on its outlook for global aircraft deliveries, Boeing sees fleet growth and pilot retirements almost doubling the demand for pilots over the next 20 years. Total demand for more than 466,000 pilots is forecast for 2010-29 - an average of 23,300 new pilots a year.
The largest growth will be in the Asia-Pacific region, with a requirement for 180,600 pilots - 70,600 of those in China. There is already a growing shortage of pilots in Asia - and in the Middle East, where Boeing forecasts a need for 32,700 pilots in the next 20 years.
Demand in North America and Europe will be unprecedented by recent history standards, with Boeing predicting a need for nearly 97,400 and 94,800 pilots, respectively, in markets that seem ill-prepared to respond.
In the U.S. 37,000 pilots will be needed over the next 10 years, rising to 56,000 over the next 14 years, just to replace retirements and not accounting for any fleet expansion. But new-pilot starts are down by 50-80% in the U.S., reaching a 10-year low in 2010, so the pipeline is not being replenished let alone expanded.
Reasons include unattractive pay and conditions at the regional airlines, which have traditionally acted as pilot farms for the majors. And those individuals who still want to be pilots now face difficulties obtaining bank financing for training.
Congressional legislation requiring a minimum 1,500 hours experience, up from 250 hours, will only exacerbate the problem as it will take new pilots 3-4 years, rather than a year, to reach the new target by traditional means.

[Hedley]

There is almost always a "shortage" of 35 yr old ATPLs with 10k TT who are already have the specified type rating with 1k hrs of PIC whom are willing to work in sh1tholes for peanuts. Salted, or otherwise.

Hard to generate much sympathy - which after all, is merely a word in the dictionary between sh1t and syphillus - but I will genuinely try, if you think it will help.

There is almost always a "surplus" of 21 yr old CPLs with 200 hrs and 40k of debt. Oddly these pilots don't seem to get hired, which is puzzling given the "pilot shortage"

[scopiton]

There is almost always a "shortage" of 35 yr old ATPLs with 10k TT who are already have the specified type rating with 1k hrs of PIC whom are willing to work in sh1tholes for peanuts. Salted, or otherwise.

[Dagwood]

My phone isn't ringing with SPMIFR job offers...

I don't feel like I'm going to kidnapped if I step outside wearing a white shirt and epaulets...

I don't think this shortage is worth worrying about

[SunWuKong]

"Pilot shortage" is a threat that was waxed and waned over the last decade

Hi Gino, I have heard of the looming shortage since I am a teenager, 20 years ago... So forget about the accuracy of this article.

Total demand for more than 466,000 pilots is forecast for 2010-29 - an average of 23,300 new pilots a year.

And trying to go 20 years in the future to make plans, you really need a good crystal ball.

Hedley is right, the problem will touch the captains qualified on type.

I am in the most dynamic/booming area in the world if we speak about pilot hiring and aircraft order, still my company receives an important amount of resume from europe and north america, and we hire less than 1% of them... No real shortage beleive me.

I think the journalist found his numbers here:

[DanWEC]

I love these articles. It's obviously because there are TONS of new airline upstarts here in North America, since so many more people are flying instead of taking rail.... ticket prices have really dropped with the manageable price of fuel and lowered taxation on it.


I wonder though- say there is a lowered intake of pilots right now- which is not surprising, all one has to to is read a few avcanada posts and be terrified of the working climate.
But really, with a potential shortage, following standard economics, that would typically drive up salaries for pilots to make it more desirable, especially to retain them in their current position instead of moving to bigger iron.

My question is- can operators support increase salaries? Now I'm the first person to say that it's downright hilarious what pilots make, but operators are fighting massive overheads, mostly in the form of fuel. Would this cause a domino effect that puts operators behind the 8 ball?

[ehbuddy]

The only Shortage that has ever happened is a Shortage of Jobs for Pilots............

[Big Pistons Forever]

There may or may not be a looming shortage of "aircraft systems managers" but there has been a steady and inexorable decline in the demand for "pilots". By pilots I mean that in the truest sense of the word, those individuals adept at using all of their senses and their hands and feet to make an aircraft achieve the desired performance.

Sad to say but I think the profession of pilot is like being a buggy whip maker in 1900. There is lots of work now but technological advances will make the job essentially obsolete in 25 years. The only remaining users of your product will be a few rich sportsman.....

[Shiny Side Up]

What always gets me is the numbers of jobs which are supposedly going to need to be filled for whatever reason. I think the claim that one article made I figured that if every pilot working for every airline in North America retired every year for the next ten years it still wouldn't match the number that they were claiming.

[burninggoats]

I, personally, am just waiting on the edge of my seat for this pilot shortage. They told me when I started my PPL, when I started my fancy aviation college program, again when I started year 2 of my fany aviation college program, when I started my Instructor rating, and when I spent 6 months fueling planes and playing janitor waiting for an instructor job that "soon" the pilot shortage/mass retirements will happen.

Now, 2 years into instructing they are saying it again, and i'm guessing this ones for real. So to all you potential employers, i'll be at various pubs around town handing out and possibly autographing my resume. If you're lucky enough to find me, you just might be able to hire me

P.S. 737 is as small as I go.




But in all seriousness, I was there, I know what they are telling new pilots, and I find it very hard to see how so many people are falling for that crap. I came into this industry knowing full well what it's like starting, and what to expect for an income.

[ScudRunner]

I pay $500

[WASIE]

I pay $500

A Day ?

[burninggoats]

I pay $500

I'll take the job for $250, and I wont even ask if it's per day/week/year.

[North Shore]

In other, real, news, Brent Crude went over $100/bbl due to concerns about the Egyptian unrest..

[Lost Lake]

I always find it a joke when they say pilot shortage. The shortage is usually for an A340 cptn with 10,000 hr on type. Less hours need not apply. Not sure how you get the left or right seat time to get there?

[W5]

I am retired now, but that forecasted shortage has been around for at least 45 years.

[stick'n'rudder]

45 years.

If I was drinking something right now, it would have been spat all over the screen reading that

Sorry to steal the topic, carry on....

[KK7]

I don't get it. If they think we're going to be so short in the next 10 years, why can't they just make it so the rudder pedals move closer to the seat?

[CPLMike89]

I don't get it. If they think we're going to be so short in the next 10 years, why can't they just make it so the rudder pedals move closer to the seat?

finally some headway on the real issue.

[trey kule]

kk7..I thought I had heard every wise ass comment...never heard that before..quite clever and amusing...though at my age , you young guys talking about shortage can be hurtful

[scopiton]

I don't get it. If they think we're going to be so short in the next 10 years, why can't they just make it so the rudder pedals move closer to the seat?

because we're waiting for a confirmation of the chinese invasion in order to expect the average north american height to diminish before manufacturer send AD's to airlines

[DanWEC]

There are apparently 116000 pilots working in the US. [http://www.studentscholarships.org/prof ... ineers.php]
37000 will be needed in the next 10 years.

This means that A: There will be a 32% growth in aviation over the next 10 years. HAHHA
Or B: 32 percent of the pilots are over the age of 55 and will retire by 65. Also doesn't seem that accurate. Maybe 15-20% of all pilots are over 55.


Do a quick google search of something like "Aviation industry 10 year analysis" to get a medium term forecast, and in North America, the outlook is invariably pessimistic, for many good reasons.
Companies that make aircraft shouldn't be relied on to generate accurate usage statistics to the pubic! That's a slightly subjective perspective, and of course they're profit by forecasting a demand for their product.
Now, overseas, that's another story.

[fish4life]

I can definately see the legacy carriers down there have close to 32% of pilots over 55, most of those companies still have pilots on furlough from 9/11 so thats 10 years of ZERO hiring

[mbav8r]

One important piece of information that seemed to be missing from Boeing's report, how many of the new aircraft orders are to replace old airframes, did they factor that in or just base thier numbers on new orders?
There will be retirements, no doubt, there will also be some growth, as mentioned the Asian market in particular will grow as the middle class grow. But to the extent of calling it "the day of reckoning" I highly doubt it, but if the downward pressure on wages and conditions continue, maybe even less new pilots will emerge and then maybe, just maybe the demand will outweigh the supply.
SPREAD THE WORD, THERE IS NO FUTURE IN BECOMING A PILOT, maybe we should camp out in front of schools with signs saying,"ask us about the pilot shortage, not the ones taking your money"...

[iflyforpie]

I think that there is going to be a pilot shortage in China as soon as they figure out how to operate Wal-Mart Jet, with world-wide service all connecting through Beijing.