The Syrian Effect

[MagicMilkshake]

If you flip on the news, it's kinda hard to avoid all the talk about rising tensions in the middle east and effectively across the world. Russia, Iran and now China back up Syria.

Gas pumps are a pain today, more than ever. I was wondering about the effect on aviation this will have. From general aviation to the commercial level. Rise in gas prices, another economic slowing looms I fear. Of course, it may not even spill over.

Rental rates are going up, and so will ticket prices. Less flying?

Just something to think about I guess.

[iflyforpie]

We all thought the same thing after 9/11... and I'm sure people thought the same thing in 1979 when the Shah got overthrown, or 1973 when the Arabs were pissed off at how Yom Kippur turned out... or 1967 with the Six Day War, or 1956 with Nasser nationalizing the Suez...

I think the last thing that was good in the Middle East for oil prices was in 1953 when the CIA overthrew the democratically elected Prime Minister of Iran so the US could get cheap oil.....

But it doesn't matter, the price of oil. You have to buy it so you do and can afford it or you can't afford it so you don't buy other things and the prices of those other things go down. There doesn't seem to be a shortage of V8 trucks and SUVs, boats, quads, sleds, bikes, or anything else that uses fuel, so it can't be that bad....

[helicopterray]

Syria isn't an oil producing nation, so it shouldn't affect the price of fuel. The Saudis will pump up production to keep prices stable if needed.

[cdnpilot77]

Syria isn't an oil producing nation, so it shouldn't affect the price of fuel.

Although by Middle Eastern standards they are a small fish, that statement is untrue. Oil accounts for 25% of the revenue for the Syrian Government.

OPEC and the major oil refining companies will find any reason possible to inflate prices artificially or naturally, that is a fact.

[longjon]

The Saudis are lowering their production, fracking and lower demand from the US of A because of them producing more of their own oil.
The exploration in the Empty Quarter (Saudi) is closeing because of cheaper energy from natural gas in Australia and AB and elsewhere.
I'd think the Egyptian coup is as important as the mess in Syria for us Westerners. For Aviation its a catch 22, more flights for security survelance but less for exploration work.
My take on the curent situation.

[azimuthaviation]

1973 when the Arabs were pissed off at how Yom Kippur turned out

They were pissed that the Americans flew in new aircraft to replace those that were lost to the SAM's, flew in TOW missiles that were devastating to Egyptian tanks in the desert, even tanks were flown in to Israel, plus the use of the SR71 to give Israel the position of Egyptian troops. Without this intervention the situation would have been very different. I guess the Israelis who always tell tales of God delivering a weaker but pious people against a monstrous Goliath enemy didn't want to take any chances and rely on Gods grace that time. They took the weapons.

Operation Nickel Grass was an overt strategic airlift and operation conducted by the United States to deliver weapons and supplies to Israel during the Yom Kippur War. In a series of events that took place over 32 days, the Military Airlift Command of the U.S. Air Force shipped 22,325 tons of tanks, artillery, ammunition, and supplies in C-141 Starlifter and C-5 Galaxy transport aircraft between October 14 and November 14, 1973. The U.S. support helped ensure that Israel survived a coordinated and surprise life-threatening attack from the Soviet-backed Arab Republic of Egypt and Syrian Arab Republic.

Operation Nickel Grass had immediate and far-reaching effects. Arab members of OPEC had declared they would limit or stop oil shipments to the United States and other countries if they supported Israel in the conflict. Holding to their threats, the Arab states declared a complete oil embargo on the United States. Oil prices skyrocketed, fuel became scarce, and the United States was soon embroiled in the 1973 oil crisis.

The oil crisis was a direct cause of the September 11 air disaster. No, not the one youre thinking of. September 11 1974, Eastern Airlines Flight 212. Both pilots were so engrossed talking about the oil embargo and what they were going to do about "those Arabs taking over" they stopped flying the plane. 72 people died and new rules about sterile cockpit were enacted. The final conversation between pilot and co-pilot is illustrated in an altitude versus time chart in the NTSB report, page 30. Funny how fast time never changes some things.... My favorite is the pilot saying "If we don't do something about Iran, by 1980 they will run the world" Lol and that 40 years before Netanyahu drew his red line at the UN where if we didn't do something about Iran, we were all doomed. (the deadline passed, the sky didn't fall)

http://www.airdisaster.com/reports/ntsb/AAR75-09.pdf

[iflyforpie]

They took the weapons.

So did the Arabs, from the Soviets. Remember, their entire air forces were annihilated during Operation Focus a few years previously. I guess it wasn't the Will of Allah for them to win...

Personally, I think both sides of that conflict are an embarrassment to humanity; they deserve each other....

My comment was based on oil prices, that's it. What you wrote is Water Cooler material.

[photofly]

I guess the Israelis who always tell tales of God delivering a weaker but pious people against a monstrous Goliath enemy didn't want to take any chances and rely on Gods grace that time. They took the weapons.

The Israelis who sometimes tell tales of God will ask you who else you think told the Americans to send the SR71s and the weapons?

http://gittefalkenberg.wordpress.com/20 ... elicopter/

[tsgas]

Global tension is never good for the stock markets or the airline industry. Obama's wonderful "arab spring" is coming back to haunt him.

[azimuthaviation]

Personally, I think both sides of that conflict are an embarrassment to humanity.

Youre half right

[cdnpilot77]

Azimuth, we get it, you are a Muslim from Lebanon and you hate Israel...we got that a long time ago. Go spew your hate filled rhetoric somewhere else. Your "facts" aren't even accurate. But, I have exactly zero interest in getting into this debate with the ignorance displayed....so long!

[azimuthaviation]

LOL I'm Muslim?? I read it on AvCanada, must be true then, you guys seem to know everything.

[Beefitarian]

Muslin? I just watched the commentary of Citizen Kane. They made the ceilings out of that so they could hide the microphones.

[Mig29]

when will you people realize that this is not about humanitarian crisis or helping one side or the other....its simply all about oil/gas/gold and making the rich man richer, and poor man poorer.....

even the American public is aware that this time their government has crossed the line, ONLY 9% agree with any military action against Syria....but US will most likely go ahead anyways. Now, Brits were about to go in, until it got voted down by their Parliament....

What is more democratic of two I ask you??

I hope for political resolution...but I'm worried this may escalate beyond Syria if foreign powers intervene. Russia has just sent 20 (!) warships in the Mediterranean after US deployed 6 of theirs.....

[akoch]

US and democratic? In the same sentence?

[azimuthaviation]

Now, Brits were about to go in, until it got voted down by their Parliament....

And that in itself is a very profound and telling event in history. Of all the interventions by the west in the Arab world of the last 100 years Britain was the common denominator. In Suez n 1956 USA opposed UK and Frances involvement and forced a settlement, in Iraq in 2003 t was France who opposed UK and USAs war. Britain was there in both Libya campaigns, invaded Iraq three times in less than 100 years to overthrow the government, they partitioned Palestine and were half of the Sykes Picot agreement, they joined the MNF in Lebanon, Desert Fox n Iraq in 1998. And those are just some of the bigger more recent ones. Britain has never shied away from these things but now theyre timid.

I would have liked to believe that they've come of age and realised that their path of flouting international law and basic human decency to further their self serving goals has played out. Or that their people can no longer be counted on to be fooled that what theyre doing is just and back them in another overseas adventure. But unfortunately for them I don't think this action was the result of a moral awakening. Most likely they are taking Iran's threats of retribution quite seriously and realise that this time they are not dealing with rag heads on camels but might be playing with a well equipped, well trained army that could quite frankly, kick their asses and they don't want to take that chance.

[Jack Klumpus]

cdnpilot77, we get it, you are a Jew from wherever and you hate anything not Israel....we got that a long time ago. Go spew your hate filled rhetoric somewhere else. Your "facts" aren't even accurate. But, I have exactly zero interest in getting into this debate with the ignorance displayed....so long!

[North Shore]

OK, enough of this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgASBVMyVFI