Crazy used aircraft prices

[Genetk44]

I've been tracking the asking price for used 172s for the past year and recently I'm seeing what I consider a weird trend over the past 2-3 months. Let me preface that I realize that compared to south of the border our market is smaller both in numbers of prospective buyers and inventory for sale...I get that....but some of the asking prices I'm seeing for high-hour used 172s seems insane to me.
Up until a month or two ago I very rarely saw a 172 for sale with more than 8,000 hours AFTT...at various prices with engine times at various hours. But recently I'm seeing 172s with 12,000-19,000 hrs.TT for prices ranging between $35k-$70k.!!

I mean it seems to me that a 34 year old 172 with 17,000 hours on the airframe for $55,000.00 seems totally outrageous. And thats only one example of many with those kinds of hours and price.
Am I crazy or do these sellers have overinflated opinions on their aircraft???
Any thoughts?

[Jungle Jim]

In many cases there is a reason for the higher asking prices. For instance the old Borden Flying Club plane( CMQ) was toally rebuilt at a reputable shop(Leggatts), has a Penn Yan 180 hp conversion, excellent paint, good avionics and was very well maintained. I believe it had about 19000 hours on it when it was recently sold. This is a nice plane and worth what it went for. The hours don't tell the whole story.

Jim

[kevinsky18]

Most people that list their planes for sale don't really want to sell them. They list them because their spouse / partner is giving them a hard time about the costs of owning and operating or they figure the summer flying season is over so hey lets put it up for sale for a crazy price and if someone bites great. If not I'll keep it another year.

I listed my plane for 4 years at the full amount of what I had invested in it. At the end of the fourth I really wanted / needed to sell it so I cut the price in half and it moved relatively quickly. It's all about how motivated the seller is and in most of these cases the seller isn't motivated at all.

[Genetk44]

Jim....I suspect that aircraft was more an exception to the rule so to speak and I sure would have liked to have known about it.
Kevin...i get what you are saying.....but most of the aircraft I'm referring to appear to be flying club and or ftu aircraft....so I suspect they are motivated to a point.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Right after the 2008 recession there was a lot of pressure for individuals/corporations to sell their jets. Apparently there was a broker in Florida whose specialty was to not sell your airplane. That way the owner could tell their wife/business partners/the bank, "hey I am trying to sell my airplane, I have it listed at a broker !". The broker charged a monthly fee, had more business than he wanted, and (privately) boasted of 100% success rate in not selling airplanes.

As for the Canadian light aircraft market 80 % of what is for sale is absolute junk that will need so much work it would not be worth it if the aircraft was free. The trick is to find the rare nice one, and then pay a decent price, it is by far the cheapest way to go in the long run.

[iflyforpie]

A tale of two 172s.

The first one is a 'cream puff'. Always hangared, always waxed, less than 3000 hours, never a trainer.

The next one is was 'ridden hard and put away wet'. 15,000 hours, probably 60,000 landings because it was a trainer, kept outside, faded paint.

Which one is worth more?

Well, the 'cream puff' has an excellent airframe, except everything on it is 30-50 years old, including McCauley or Goodyear brakes; every pulley, bearing, cable, and bellcrank; and the milky glass. The tires are ten years old with cracked sidewalls. An old LORAN-C graces the dashboard with a bunch of Narco crap radios... the owner is keeping his 496.

Now we go on to the trainer. Yeah, that paint is terrible, but serviceable and probably would go up to an 8 with a heavy cut polish. Most of the interior is worn out or ripped. But it has a half-time engine that was factory remanufactured two years ago, installed with all new hoses, shock mounts, controls, and accessories. The brakes, tires, bearings, and glass have all been replaced recently. It has old but solid KX-170s or KX-155s plus a KLN-90 or perhaps even a Garmin 430.

Now, if I was going to choose an airplane that I wanted to fly without putting much more for money into it... I'd choose the trainer. If you buy the cream puff, chances are once you actually start flying that arthritic bird you will have a very large maintenance bill.

Not saying that it isn't better to buy the cream puff from a purely emotional point of view--which is what 90% of aircraft purchases are anyways, so why not--but probably not a financial one.

[NeverBlue]

In a 172 one can have $5000 or $10,000 or $30,000 or more invested into avionics alone.

"Hours" on these items makes no difference at all.

[Genetk44]

Well avionics are a point...but if you invested 30K in avionics 15 years ago do you really believe they are still worth $30k now? I doubt it.

[ScudRunner]

You really need to look at the times on the engines, for a 172 in decent condition you could put the base at around 25K-30K. Then if its a brand new engine up front tack on another 20K-25K to that price, then go look at the avionics and other factors.

I have seen a dual stack 430w coupled to an Auto pilot in 172, yes a little over kill and totally unnecessary for a 172. however the owner values that at 15K+ since that is what he spent now he values that at 75K 172 wanting to get out what he put in. Unfortunately the market won't bear it and of course here in Canada tack on another 10K just because it has a C reg on it. Sad thing is most light planes sit in hangars and put less that 50 hours on them in a year and as iflyforpie remarked what plane would you want.

Think about it if you own it for 10 years (simple math here) 75k /10 =$7500 year/50hours =$150hour just to have the plane not including fuel, insurance, maintenance, hangar, charts and pubs.
Bottom line if it fly's floats or F#@$'s rent it!

[Genetk44]

In a 172 one can have $5000 or $10,000 or $30,000 or more invested into avionics alone.

"Hours" on these items makes no difference at all.

Neverblue,

Here are the avionics on that 17000hr aircraft.....worth $30k?

Avionics include: 2 x KX 155s (1 with glide slope), 1 x KR 87 ADF; 1 x KN 64 DME; 1 x KT76A transponder (mode C); 1 x KMA 124 audio panel; 1 x Trimble 2000 Approach IFR Gps( not certified) and a DF 88 direction finder.

[rob-air]

Think about it if you own it for 10 years (simple math here) 75k /10 =$7500 year/50hours =$150hour just to have the plane not including fuel, insurance, maintenance, hangar, charts and pubs.
Bottom line if it fly's floats or F#@$'s rent it!

I doubt that a c-172 worth 75k now will be totally worthless in ten years, you could easily get some money back if you can sell it.

What really amazes me is the MSRP compare to market value at present time. Let say you find a nice model M or N, you cough out the the 50+k to get it, well that same plane sold brand new for less than half that.

''The 1975 model 172M sold for US$16,055 for the 172, US$17,890 for the Skyhawk and US$20,335 for the Skyhawk II''
-From wiki

[iflyforpie]

Avionics are probably the biggest sunk cost item on any aircraft. Hours might not make any difference, but used electronics always goes down in price, plus there is obsolescence as well (like the LORAN-C I mentioned earlier).

Seriously, go find something that already has an acre of glass in and Garmin doodads and look at the asking price. Then go look at the asking price of a basic aircraft and add the cost of even just the parts required--never mind the labour--to have an equivalently equipped aircraft and you will come up with a higher figure.

What really amazes me is the MSRP compare to market value at present time. Let say you find a nice model M or N, you cough out the the 50+k to get it, well that same plane sold brand new for less than half that.

''The 1975 model 172M sold for US$16,055 for the 172, US$17,890 for the Skyhawk and US$20,335 for the Skyhawk II''
-From wiki

That's just inflation. The 70s and 80s especially were rampant with it. Some old farmer told me that back in the day, a 185 cost the same as a new combine. Look at the price of a new 206, and they are pretty much worth the same as a new combine!

[NeverBlue]

but if you invested 30K in avionics 15 years ago do you really believe they are still worth $30k now? I doubt it.

Well...you'd be wrong.

I did say "could have as much as $30,000 in avionics"

The boxes that you are mentioning in that 172 are older but their pricing hasn't changed much in 15 years.
You're probably looking at $10000 for that package if you had to replace every box. ( 30 year old technology)
I bet that hasn't changed much in 15 years ( used pricing of course).

Kx155 system w/glideslope - $3500 US
Kx155 system w/o glideslope - $2600 US
KT 76A - $700 US
KR87 system - $2800 US
KN64 system - $2000 US
KMA 24 system - $800 US

If you had a used Garmin 430 gps/nav/com (15 years old) it's still worth $8000...about what it was new 15 years ago...and that includes only the box...an indicator is about $1500...

[Colonel Sanders]

Disregarding insane Canadian asking (not selling) prices ...

When you spend a dollar on aircraft avionics,
it only increases the value of the aircraft 50 cents.

Guess which side of that you want to be on?

Same is true of an engine overhaul, or paint, etc.

Some aircraft owners believe that when they spend
$5,000 on an annual, that increases the value of the
aircraft by $5,000. Uh, no.

Some aircraft owners believe that when they spend
$1,000 on gas, that increases the value of the aircraft
by $1,000. Uh, no.

[Genetk44]

but if you invested 30K in avionics 15 years ago do you really believe they are still worth $30k now? I doubt it.

Well...you'd be wrong.

I did say "could have as much as $30,000 in avionics"

The boxes that you are mentioning in that 172 are older but their pricing hasn't changed much in 15 years.
You're probably looking at $10000 for that package if you had to replace every box. ( 30 year old technology)
I bet that hasn't changed much in 15 years ( used pricing of course).

Kx155 system w/glideslope - $3500 US
Kx155 system w/o glideslope - $2600 US
KT 76A - $700 US
KR87 system - $2800 US
KN64 system - $2000 US
KMA 24 system - $800 US

If you had a used Garmin 430 gps/nav/com (15 years old) it's still worth $8000...about what it was new 15 years ago...and that includes only the box...an indicator is about $1500...

Sorry...I didn't mean to imply that those particular items are or were worth 30k when purchased....if I gave that impression I apologize. I have no idea on what these kinds of items cost new or used....I chose your 30k amount at random...surely avionics just like other electronics,computers,etc., lose value pretty quickly once they hit the market don't they????

I posted that list of actual avionics so we could have actual items to discuss....I certainly would not know how to price or value them.

[NeverBlue]

Please...no need to apologize.

The reason they hold their value is because of the cost of repair versus replacement.

The boxes you mentioned are still in many aircraft and are slowly being changed out. The parts to repair them are becoming more dificult to get. So eventually you will need to either retrofit the aircraft with newer systems...which is very costly...or replace the box with another servicable one.

It's all about supply and demand.

You can't compare it to consumer electronics at all.

To have a garmin 430 installed today may cost you as much as 12k - 15k depending on the integration ( including all hardware, labour and engineering costs)
...and that's just one system

[Shiny Side Up]

When you spend a dollar on aircraft avionics,
it only increases the value of the aircraft 50 cents.

Guess which side of that you want to be on?

Same is true of an engine overhaul, or paint, etc.

One finds this lots even south of the border, with the exception that you're more likely to find some pretty extravagant avionics packages south of the border. I run into one fellow who had a pair of 530s stuffed into an old C-170, his asking price was just shy of the $100K mark. Nice stuff to have, but at the end of the day its still a four place airplane that barely tops a 100 knots, and is half a century old. Doesn't really improve its capabilities all said and done.

If one was to spend money to increase the selling price of one's airplane, paint (like houses and cars) is your best return on investment, if only for the fact that there's a lot of suckers who will fall in love with a pretty paint job.

[iflyforpie]

Careful there. I've seen a few guys get stung with getting planes with nice 530s or 430s from the US and then having to have them placarded 'VFR only' because of being installed on a field mod.

[Rookie50]

Good airplanes here will command a premium because there is SO MUCH junk here compared to the US. I didn't even seriously look here, but went right to an import. And when I sell mine -- if that is-- it will command a premium because of the history and condition.

[Colonel Sanders]

I've seen a few guys get stung with getting planes with nice 530s or 430s from the US and then having to have them placarded 'VFR only' because of being installed on a field mod

Hey, you can do a "vfr-only" install of a G430/530
in Canada, too.

No flight manual supplement, no IFR.

[NeverBlue]

Doesn't really improve its capabilities all said and done.

I guess that depends how you look at it.

I would rather have a 170 with 2 530s than one with old non-repairable avionics that needs to be retrofitted.
I would also say it's worth at least $30k of the asking price to already have it done and not have to deal with the headaches that can arise from getting it done after purchase.
Also they are desirable units right now and can be easily sold on the used market for some quick cash if you could live with only one in the airplane.

What's a 50 year old Super Cub worth, or a 30 year old Husky if you can find one, with almost no avionics and 2 seats...just shy of 100K?

[Genetk44]

Everything I've read and heard about buying used aircraft....one of the most common pieces of advice has been to buy an aircraft that the seller has already spent the money on upgradeing the avionics instead of doing that expense after the purchase.

[Colonel Sanders]

a 170 with 2 530s

If for some odd reason this aircraft came into
my possession, I would remove both 530's, sell
them, and replace them with:

intercom
VHF comm
transponder/encoder
airgizmo adapter for portable GPS/tablet

and I would pocket the cash and enjoy the
better display in the panel.

[Bede]

Question for Col. or Iflyforpie,

So if someone has a 172 and they want to install the latest GPS, they need an STC if they want to use if for IFR? If there is no STC it's considered a field mod and it's VFR only? Am I correct? Do you have CAR's reference?

[Colonel Sanders]

Ok. Last time I looked at the CARs - I can look it
up again if you want - an AME (not an AMO) can
install a G430/530 as a VFR-only nav-comm.

EDIT --

CAR 571 SCHEDULE II - Specialized Maintenance

Avionics

4. (2) Any avionics system installation or modification is avionics specialized maintenance except for:

(b) installation of single VHF communication or single integrated navigation/communication systems that are not interfaced with any other system, other than an intercom system;

Clearly an AME (not an AMO) can install a G430/530
(and associated OBS head - it's part of the "system")
as a VFR-only unit.

However, he many only hook it up to the audio system -
he can't connect it to an auto-pilot, for example.

And if he doesn't push the paper to comply with
the IFR TSO (etc ad nauseum) for the installation,
it's VFR-only.